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Trump, the Dollar and China: What to watch for in 2025 Trump wants to boost exports, bring back American jobs from overseas and reduce the trade deficit. To achieve this he needs a weaker dollar. Trump also wants a strong dollar and will not brook any challenges to its near monopoly of international payments. Can he possibly have both?    Trump’s Problem No.1: His announced tariffs will most likely boost the dollar as a result of increased uncertainty globally. Even if he slaps large tariffs on imports, the increase in the dollar’s value will eliminate the downward pressures on imports and the US trade deficit. Trump’s Problem No.2: His announced large tax cuts for the rich will boost the influx of foreign capital into the US, further boosting the dollar and the gap between domestic savings & investment, which is the root cause of the US trade deficit. Trump’s Problem No. 3: The near monopoly of the US dollar over international transactions is what ensures the paradox that, whenever things go bad in the US economy, the dollar rises. If Trump were serious about the US trade deficit, and his stated objective of wanting to push the dollar down to make US exports more attractive, he should want to end the dollar’s global dominance. But that would spell the end of the United States as a global hegemon – something Trump does not want to see happen on his watch. Perhaps what might work for Trump would be something similar to what Ronald Reagan did to Japan in the so-called 1985 Plaza Accords: he gave them the ultimatumn “appreciate your currency massively or face massive tariffs on your exports”. Can Trump do the same to China? China is no Japan – it will not roll over that easily. Talking of China, Beijing also faces a great dilemma in 2025 and beyond: · To stay put and play for time until the US internal contradictions play out? · Or to turn the BRICS into a Bretton-Woods-like system, with the yuan at its heart? Beijing has not made up its mind. In the next year, or years, we shall know the answers. Till then, be well. #yanisvaroufakis #usa🇺🇸 #chinaa #dollor #trump2024 #economics
Trump, the Dollar and China: What to watch for in 2025 Trump wants to boost exports, bring back American jobs from overseas and reduce the trade deficit. To achieve this he needs a weaker dollar. Trump also wants a strong dollar and will not brook any challenges to its near monopoly of international payments. Can he possibly have both? Trump’s Problem No.1: His announced tariffs will most likely boost the dollar as a result of increased uncertainty globally. Even if he slaps large tariffs on imports, the increase in the dollar’s value will eliminate the downward pressures on imports and the US trade deficit. Trump’s Problem No.2: His announced large tax cuts for the rich will boost the influx of foreign capital into the US, further boosting the dollar and the gap between domestic savings & investment, which is the root cause of the US trade deficit. Trump’s Problem No. 3: The near monopoly of the US dollar over international transactions is what ensures the paradox that, whenever things go bad in the US economy, the dollar rises. If Trump were serious about the US trade deficit, and his stated objective of wanting to push the dollar down to make US exports more attractive, he should want to end the dollar’s global dominance. But that would spell the end of the United States as a global hegemon – something Trump does not want to see happen on his watch. Perhaps what might work for Trump would be something similar to what Ronald Reagan did to Japan in the so-called 1985 Plaza Accords: he gave them the ultimatumn “appreciate your currency massively or face massive tariffs on your exports”. Can Trump do the same to China? China is no Japan – it will not roll over that easily. Talking of China, Beijing also faces a great dilemma in 2025 and beyond: · To stay put and play for time until the US internal contradictions play out? · Or to turn the BRICS into a Bretton-Woods-like system, with the yuan at its heart? Beijing has not made up its mind. In the next year, or years, we shall know the answers. Till then, be well. #yanisvaroufakis #usa🇺🇸 #chinaa #dollor #trump2024 #economics

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