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@pandawapapatt: sayyidul istighfar 🤲

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Thursday 18 July 2024 03:53:10 GMT
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#CapCut last week’s market blow up was only partly caused by the yen carry trade. Sure, the yen trade was a catalyst, but really and truly there were three other components to this. 1) #volatility was continually mispriced OFTEN - before FOMC through 2023, many overbought event volatility expecting the market/jerome powell to do WAY more than he actually did… this led to volatility being sold after the event via the #VIX. More recently, we have entered the situation where volatility has been severely underpriced based on where we are in the market cycle! Events like yen unwind lead to a bit of a catalyst! 2) some bad data on the employment front came out to make markets uncertain and shake up interest rate pricing… markets move based on expectations and future pricing, not current, and the change in data provided enough uncertainty for people to dump short volatility positions! 3) Kamala’s popularity increasing certainly changed the pricing of the US election. This is another added focus for markets since Trump has been nailed on up until Kamala’s introduction!
#CapCut last week’s market blow up was only partly caused by the yen carry trade. Sure, the yen trade was a catalyst, but really and truly there were three other components to this. 1) #volatility was continually mispriced OFTEN - before FOMC through 2023, many overbought event volatility expecting the market/jerome powell to do WAY more than he actually did… this led to volatility being sold after the event via the #VIX. More recently, we have entered the situation where volatility has been severely underpriced based on where we are in the market cycle! Events like yen unwind lead to a bit of a catalyst! 2) some bad data on the employment front came out to make markets uncertain and shake up interest rate pricing… markets move based on expectations and future pricing, not current, and the change in data provided enough uncertainty for people to dump short volatility positions! 3) Kamala’s popularity increasing certainly changed the pricing of the US election. This is another added focus for markets since Trump has been nailed on up until Kamala’s introduction!

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