Thomas
Region: US
Saturday 19 October 2024 19:46:42 GMT
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Ty :
Not true. The sample is also not representative
2024-10-30 09:57:35
4
BitcoinBTC :
facts
2024-10-20 15:53:21
1
Will McKinnon :
The argument for the accuracy of the betting odds are based on the efficient market hypothesis.
2024-10-23 18:28:11
1
Tony Baloney :
The incentives are important but this misses that a key advantage of prediction markets is aggregation. Aggregating huge numbers of views is what is so powerful.
2024-10-23 09:04:41
1
fkvalue :
Given how the financial markets crash drastically in a few days at least every fifteen years tells you how good at forecasting that money really is.
2024-10-20 10:44:52
1
Richard Wolf :
political polling generally doesn't try to predict future outcomes. its trying to collect opinion data that is (hopefully) representative of the population targeted.
2024-10-23 02:01:49
3
user4841902771759 :
Yeah, look at the auditing industry… they can’t hold interest in their clients because financial interests are too powerful
2024-10-19 19:59:33
1
hurtinforasquirtin :
thoughts on sell side corporations thinking bitcoin is a scam
2024-10-20 08:31:36
0
medon11651 :
Iowa Electronic Markets is a much more accurate betting market
2024-10-20 07:00:53
1
viren :
wait maybe i don’t understand how polls work but where is the incentive to misrepresent who you are voting for to a pollster? or are we comparing to “who do you think will win?” polls
2024-10-19 20:03:06
1
jaked694 :
My q is if there is a trader who is providing a floor for djt favorability and other people buy into the pm “sentiment” what happens when he dumps a week b4 (ie pump and dump trump lol
2024-10-19 22:22:27
1
Yeezus :
Good video. Many don’t understand most of the people with millions at stake aren’t doing it because it’s “fun money”
2024-10-19 20:24:55
0
Jay :
Imagine what kinda predictions Google was able to make with all the user & search queries
2024-12-30 19:55:18
1
Thomas :
To be clear, institutions obviously have more resources than a “random person,” but that’s BECAUSE they stand to gain monetarily from the accuracy of their predictions.
2024-10-19 19:51:04
0
Remilio :
smart money eats dumb money. that's all you need to say homie.
2024-10-21 15:29:15
1
fdelaesp :
Hi someone is making fake acc of u dude
2024-10-21 21:13:56
1
andrewwamusembi :
You seen the Taleb paper he posted talking about how volatility of election odds signals tighter election probabilities?
2024-10-20 02:54:49
1
nullwristmotion :
“Pretty understood in finance” Do you understand how little finance bros know
2024-10-19 20:47:02
1
jaked694 :
Apparently there’s a single trader freddi9999 who is outbidding others w/a huge stake, and providing a floor for djt pm. Unclear why. Happened w/Romney too
2024-10-19 22:07:07
0
Haines Hoag :
The problem is, election markets are not nearly large enough or free enough for entry to really be picking up on general sentiment. Polymarket isn’t even available for US traders and attracts crypto bros that skew the results to the right. In addition, political markets don’t really have “private info” like in the stock market, and as explained many times, public narratives about where the election will end up are often driven by media and eventually end up wide of the mark
2024-10-19 19:54:05
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[Meow] :
I like this content from you more then trying to fight with the trading people
2024-10-19 19:51:25
4
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