@juraganmisobatam: Ada kokding woi di warung juragan miso,kita ada di batam ya woi jgn bnyk kali tanya di kira aku di medan

Juragan miso BATAM

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Thursday 19 December 2024 05:07:59 GMT

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Lastri Property 🏡 :

enakkkk ini woyyy😁😁😁

2025-04-14 07:23:37

0

yunita_Af.Lbs :

es campur itu

2024-12-19 07:21:04

0

HaiKya :

sabtu minggu ada gak koldingnya

2025-02-13 01:14:29

0

rembulan malam bulan :

sedap sagat kak 👍👍

2024-12-19 09:45:30

0

Tri Bintarti Effendi 789 :

💪

2025-06-09 02:28:34

0

sifa rahayu :

😁

2025-04-28 09:24:26

0

Non Ria Ria :

👍

2025-04-09 04:56:48

0

monora :

😁

2025-01-14 17:13:37

0

Siti Syakdiah :

ada yg kurang tuh Bang,,pulut nya.gk ada 😋

2024-12-19 05:44:00

0

Sendaljepit_ :

Santannya pecah..

2024-12-26 09:30:10

0

ria_nazaria :

buat ngences aja mas? jahuu...klw dekat sdh aku duluan mas? 🤣🤣👍

2024-12-19 06:46:11

0

Ijun harahap :

iyvwoi

2024-12-19 05:13:33

0

Iman Taruna :

ngecess woii

2024-12-19 05:14:30

0

Bagusti :

😁😁😁

2024-12-19 14:15:55

0

Bu Yana :

di,btm di mna om,ibu orang btm

2024-12-19 07:54:55

0

EMILY BERGASAE :

es campur

2024-12-19 06:27:51

0

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Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn. So many of our debates and disagreements we shout about are because we don't understand Bayes theorem, or how human rationality often works. Bayes theorem is named after the 18th century Thomas Bayes, and essentially, it's a formula which asks: When you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it? Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh up new evidence against our assumptions or our ‘priors.’ In other words, we all carry with us certain ideas about how the world works and new evidence will challenge us. For example, somebody might believe that ‘smoking is safe,’ that ‘stress causes mouth ulcers,’ or that ‘human activity is unrelated to climate change.’ These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information. Now imagine a new study comes along which challenges one of your priors. Well, a single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs, but the studies accumulate and eventually the scales will tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible. Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It's not even about true or false. It's about what's most reasonable based on the best evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much good quality data as possible. Without evidence, without belief forming data, we have only our priors and biases. And those aren't all that rational.

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn. So many of our debates and disagreements we shout about are because we don't understand Bayes theorem, or how human rationality often works. Bayes theorem is named after the 18th century Thomas Bayes, and essentially, it's a formula which asks: When you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it? Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh up new evidence against our assumptions or our ‘priors.’ In other words, we all carry with us certain ideas about how the world works and new evidence will challenge us. For example, somebody might believe that ‘smoking is safe,’ that ‘stress causes mouth ulcers,’ or that ‘human activity is unrelated to climate change.’ These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information. Now imagine a new study comes along which challenges one of your priors. Well, a single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs, but the studies accumulate and eventually the scales will tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible. Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It's not even about true or false. It's about what's most reasonable based on the best evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much good quality data as possible. Without evidence, without belief forming data, we have only our priors and biases. And those aren't all that rational.

Bring the cozy vibes home this fall 🍂 Walmart has yall your decor must haves at a price you’ll love ❤️ checkout the link in the comments #walmart #walmartfinds #walmartcreator #fyp #fypage

Bring the cozy vibes home this fall 🍂 Walmart has yall your decor must haves at a price you’ll love ❤️ checkout the link in the comments #walmart #walmartfinds #walmartcreator #fyp #fypage

There’s a certain type of person who will criticise everything. They will mock you if you try, they will poke holes in what you say, and they will tell you you are doing it all wrong, but they will never, ever be caught doing anything constructive themselves. These critics are those who are so relentlessly negative that they pull you down to their cynical sidelines. They can’t stand anybody doing anything, because it’s always going to be wrong. But, as Theodore Roosevelt put it, it is not the critic who counts, but the brave and valiant person who enters the arena. In his book Swarm, Byung-Chul Han argues that we are living in an age of outrage. Outrage is 'characterised by a high degree of agitation and anger' about any topic. The problem isn’t the anger itself, but outrage is what prevents people from having a calm, rational, and reasoned discourse. People are so angry and screaming at things that they can’t then settle down to build something positive and constructive. Han’s point is that a stable public sphere requires level-headed minds who are willing to sit down and do the boring, essential work of compromising, and making something work. Outrage is always willing to tear a building down, but is unwilling to build something better back up. If you ever come across a relentless critic, ask them what they would do differently, instead. Pin them down. Ask them what their suggestions are. If they don’t have anything positive to offer, you might as well walk away, and find somebody who is willing to change things.

There’s a certain type of person who will criticise everything. They will mock you if you try, they will poke holes in what you say, and they will tell you you are doing it all wrong, but they will never, ever be caught doing anything constructive themselves. These critics are those who are so relentlessly negative that they pull you down to their cynical sidelines. They can’t stand anybody doing anything, because it’s always going to be wrong. But, as Theodore Roosevelt put it, it is not the critic who counts, but the brave and valiant person who enters the arena. In his book Swarm, Byung-Chul Han argues that we are living in an age of outrage. Outrage is 'characterised by a high degree of agitation and anger' about any topic. The problem isn’t the anger itself, but outrage is what prevents people from having a calm, rational, and reasoned discourse. People are so angry and screaming at things that they can’t then settle down to build something positive and constructive. Han’s point is that a stable public sphere requires level-headed minds who are willing to sit down and do the boring, essential work of compromising, and making something work. Outrage is always willing to tear a building down, but is unwilling to build something better back up. If you ever come across a relentless critic, ask them what they would do differently, instead. Pin them down. Ask them what their suggestions are. If they don’t have anything positive to offer, you might as well walk away, and find somebody who is willing to change things.

#fyp#viral#Love

#fyp#viral#Love

this song >> #madriagalupsss #foryou #lyrics #fyp

this song >> #madriagalupsss #foryou #lyrics #fyp

With banks closed or destroyed in Gaza, and ATM machines scarce, people are resorting to desperate measures — including repairing damaged banknotes in order to get by. #economy #banknote #gaza

With banks closed or destroyed in Gaza, and ATM machines scarce, people are resorting to desperate measures — including repairing damaged banknotes in order to get by. #economy #banknote #gaza

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