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@izulmuta: #CapCut ありがとうな！

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Tuesday 24 December 2024 11:20:28 GMT
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Estimating the dollar impact of a TikTok shutdown on the U.S. economy involves examining its direct contributions, spillover effects, and lost opportunities. Here’s a rough breakdown in terms of dollars: 1. Loss of TikTok Ad Revenue • TikTok was projected to generate $6 billion in ad revenue globally in 2024, with a significant portion coming from the U.S. (estimated at 40-50%, or $2.4-$3 billion). • The ad spend that doesn’t transfer effectively to other platforms could represent hundreds of millions in lost revenue for marketers. 2. Impact on E-Commerce and TikTok Shop • TikTok Shop has driven substantial sales for businesses, with the platform facilitating an estimated $20 billion globally in gross merchandise value (GMV) in 2023. • The U.S. accounts for approximately 15-20% of TikTok’s GMV, meaning $3-$4 billion in lost sales for businesses leveraging TikTok Shop. • This could translate into lost profits of $300-$400 million for small businesses and creators. 3. Income Loss for Content Creators • An estimated 4 million U.S. creators earn income through TikTok, with top creators making six to seven figures annually. • Even conservatively estimating average earnings of $1,000 annually per creator, that’s a $4 billion hit to creator incomes. High-performing creators could face disproportionate losses. 4. Small Business Marketing Losses • Over 5 million businesses actively use TikTok in the U.S. to reach consumers. A shutdown would force these businesses to divert their marketing budgets to less effective channels. • If each business loses just $500-$5,000 in sales due to reduced exposure, this could total $2.5 billion to $25 billion in lost revenue across the economy. 5. Job Losses • TikTok Employees: TikTok employs about 1,500 U.S.-based staff, with average tech sector salaries of $150,000-$200,000 annually, leading to $225-$300 million in lost wages. • Peripheral Jobs: Marketing agencies, fulfillment services, and other TikTok-dependent businesses could face ripple effects, potentially affecting 10,000-20,000 additional jobs, leading to another $1-$2 billion in lost wages. 6. Consumer Spending Reductions • TikTok influences billions in consumer spending, particularly among younger demographics. For instance: • TikTok trends reportedly drive $5-$10 billion annually in consumer purchases in the U.S. • Even a 20-30% reduction in this spending due to reduced exposure could result in $1-$3 billion in lost consumer activity. 7. Legal and Financial Ramifications • Loss to ByteDance and Investors: TikTok’s valuation could decline by $50-$70 billion globally, impacting U.S.-based investors like venture capital firms. • Litigation Costs: The U.S. government and TikTok could incur tens of millions in legal expenses tied to disputes over the shutdown. Estimated Total Impact Adding these figures together gives a rough estimate of $10 billion to $20 billion in direct economic losses annually, with broader ripple effects potentially pushing the total to $30 billion or more in the first year. Context While the overall U.S. economy (~$25 trillion GDP) could absorb this, the concentrated impact on small businesses, creators, and tech innovation would create notable disruptions in specific sectors. #tiktokban #tiktokusa🇺🇸 #tiktokcreators #creator #tiktokaffiliate
Estimating the dollar impact of a TikTok shutdown on the U.S. economy involves examining its direct contributions, spillover effects, and lost opportunities. Here’s a rough breakdown in terms of dollars: 1. Loss of TikTok Ad Revenue • TikTok was projected to generate $6 billion in ad revenue globally in 2024, with a significant portion coming from the U.S. (estimated at 40-50%, or $2.4-$3 billion). • The ad spend that doesn’t transfer effectively to other platforms could represent hundreds of millions in lost revenue for marketers. 2. Impact on E-Commerce and TikTok Shop • TikTok Shop has driven substantial sales for businesses, with the platform facilitating an estimated $20 billion globally in gross merchandise value (GMV) in 2023. • The U.S. accounts for approximately 15-20% of TikTok’s GMV, meaning $3-$4 billion in lost sales for businesses leveraging TikTok Shop. • This could translate into lost profits of $300-$400 million for small businesses and creators. 3. Income Loss for Content Creators • An estimated 4 million U.S. creators earn income through TikTok, with top creators making six to seven figures annually. • Even conservatively estimating average earnings of $1,000 annually per creator, that’s a $4 billion hit to creator incomes. High-performing creators could face disproportionate losses. 4. Small Business Marketing Losses • Over 5 million businesses actively use TikTok in the U.S. to reach consumers. A shutdown would force these businesses to divert their marketing budgets to less effective channels. • If each business loses just $500-$5,000 in sales due to reduced exposure, this could total $2.5 billion to $25 billion in lost revenue across the economy. 5. Job Losses • TikTok Employees: TikTok employs about 1,500 U.S.-based staff, with average tech sector salaries of $150,000-$200,000 annually, leading to $225-$300 million in lost wages. • Peripheral Jobs: Marketing agencies, fulfillment services, and other TikTok-dependent businesses could face ripple effects, potentially affecting 10,000-20,000 additional jobs, leading to another $1-$2 billion in lost wages. 6. Consumer Spending Reductions • TikTok influences billions in consumer spending, particularly among younger demographics. For instance: • TikTok trends reportedly drive $5-$10 billion annually in consumer purchases in the U.S. • Even a 20-30% reduction in this spending due to reduced exposure could result in $1-$3 billion in lost consumer activity. 7. Legal and Financial Ramifications • Loss to ByteDance and Investors: TikTok’s valuation could decline by $50-$70 billion globally, impacting U.S.-based investors like venture capital firms. • Litigation Costs: The U.S. government and TikTok could incur tens of millions in legal expenses tied to disputes over the shutdown. Estimated Total Impact Adding these figures together gives a rough estimate of $10 billion to $20 billion in direct economic losses annually, with broader ripple effects potentially pushing the total to $30 billion or more in the first year. Context While the overall U.S. economy (~$25 trillion GDP) could absorb this, the concentrated impact on small businesses, creators, and tech innovation would create notable disruptions in specific sectors. #tiktokban #tiktokusa🇺🇸 #tiktokcreators #creator #tiktokaffiliate


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