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@lyndsielocks: Glow-up starts from the inside ✨ I take NeoCell Grass-Fed Collagen Peptides with Vitamin C + Biotin every day for strong hair, skin, and nails. Ready to glow? #CollagenPeptides #BeautyRoutine #GlowUp #WomensHealth #WellnessHacks #tiktokshop @NeoCell Collagen #neocellcollagen

Lyndsie | Travel & Lifestyle
Lyndsie | Travel & Lifestyle
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Thursday 03 July 2025 01:27:52 GMT
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Hotter Inflation, Weak Jobs — Why DIDN'T The Fed Hike Rates? In this Short video, @MichaelLebowitz and I discuss why the Fed decided NOT to hike interest rates despite hotter inflation, weakening employment data, and persistent price pressures. Just six weeks ago, every Fed member voted to raise rates because inflation was a serious concern. Now, after hotter-than-expected CPI & PPI readings, a disappointing jobs report showing just 29,000 new jobs, and significant downward revisions to previous months, nearly everyone has changed their mind. What exactly changed? The Fed keeps telling us it's data-dependent, but the latest data doesn't support the idea that inflation is under control. Oil prices remain elevated, ISM reports show little relief in pricing pressures, and CPI continues to surprise to the upside. If inflation was enough of a problem to justify a unanimous rate hike six weeks ago, why wouldn't the Fed hike again today? One explanation is that policymakers believe their previous rate hike is already working. But monetary policy operates with long and variable lags. It can take months before higher rates meaningfully affect economic activity and potentially up to a year for much of the impact to materialize. Six weeks simply isn't enough time to declare victory. Treasury yields have also fallen, but that doesn't necessarily mean inflation has peaked or the Fed's policy is working. Bonds may have simply become technically oversold and bounced. There is still no convincing technical confirmation that yields have established a lasting peak. Then there's the AI financing story. Higher borrowing costs could complicate the massive capital spending plans across the AI industry, but ensuring companies can spend unlimited amounts on AI infrastructure isn't the Fed's responsibility. The upcoming election may also be part of the discussion, although a rate decision this close to Election Day is unlikely to change the outcome. Meanwhile, the labor market is far weaker than the headline numbers suggest. Companies aren't firing aggressively, but they're not hiring either. It's similar to the housing market: everything is frozen. That can look stable until conditions suddenly deteriorate. Right now, the odds for another rate hike in December is very high, which makes the Fed's decision to pause now even harder to explain. So, hotter inflation, stagnant hiring, elevated oil prices, and a Fed that suddenly changed its position without a meaningful improvement in the data. If inflation was a problem six weeks ago, it's still a problem today. So why wait?
Hotter Inflation, Weak Jobs — Why DIDN'T The Fed Hike Rates? In this Short video, @MichaelLebowitz and I discuss why the Fed decided NOT to hike interest rates despite hotter inflation, weakening employment data, and persistent price pressures. Just six weeks ago, every Fed member voted to raise rates because inflation was a serious concern. Now, after hotter-than-expected CPI & PPI readings, a disappointing jobs report showing just 29,000 new jobs, and significant downward revisions to previous months, nearly everyone has changed their mind. What exactly changed? The Fed keeps telling us it's data-dependent, but the latest data doesn't support the idea that inflation is under control. Oil prices remain elevated, ISM reports show little relief in pricing pressures, and CPI continues to surprise to the upside. If inflation was enough of a problem to justify a unanimous rate hike six weeks ago, why wouldn't the Fed hike again today? One explanation is that policymakers believe their previous rate hike is already working. But monetary policy operates with long and variable lags. It can take months before higher rates meaningfully affect economic activity and potentially up to a year for much of the impact to materialize. Six weeks simply isn't enough time to declare victory. Treasury yields have also fallen, but that doesn't necessarily mean inflation has peaked or the Fed's policy is working. Bonds may have simply become technically oversold and bounced. There is still no convincing technical confirmation that yields have established a lasting peak. Then there's the AI financing story. Higher borrowing costs could complicate the massive capital spending plans across the AI industry, but ensuring companies can spend unlimited amounts on AI infrastructure isn't the Fed's responsibility. The upcoming election may also be part of the discussion, although a rate decision this close to Election Day is unlikely to change the outcome. Meanwhile, the labor market is far weaker than the headline numbers suggest. Companies aren't firing aggressively, but they're not hiring either. It's similar to the housing market: everything is frozen. That can look stable until conditions suddenly deteriorate. Right now, the odds for another rate hike in December is very high, which makes the Fed's decision to pause now even harder to explain. So, hotter inflation, stagnant hiring, elevated oil prices, and a Fed that suddenly changed its position without a meaningful improvement in the data. If inflation was a problem six weeks ago, it's still a problem today. So why wait?

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