@thatweatherboi: ⚠️Tropical storm conditions are forecast over the southern half of Japan over the next 36 hours⚠️ Hazards ⬇️ • Wind gusts ranging 60 to 90km/h with risk of locally 110km/h, capable of causing localized minor damage and power outages. • Localized rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour due to extreme convective downpours, capable of causing life-threatening flash-flooding and landslides. • Rainfall totals ranging widely due to the localized extreme downpours, ranging between 3 to 6 inches widespread, with locally as much as 16 inches possible. Invest 95W has developed into tropical depression 21W, and is forecast to upgrade to tropical storm Peipah this morning as it makes landfall over southern Japan, then tracks northward, impacting the entire southern half of Japan over the next 36 hours. Maximum forecasted intensity of this storm is T2 or T3 over the next 24 hours, with peak sustained winds of 70 to 85km/h. By 36 hours, intensity storm intensity is forecast to increase to 90-110km/h, though some uncertainty prevails on this due to some uncertainty in the structure of the storm. This system is very tricky to forecast, as the broad core will be attempting to consolidate into a smaller, more compact, and better structured version over the next 12 to 24 hours. The major hindrance is the fact the system will be located over Japan’s complex geography, and this heightens the risk of major localized flash-flooding, and damaging localized wind gusts near or greater then 100km/h. Knowing precisely where these severe conditions will occur is a gamble, but the risk is the highest over the southeastern shores of Japan, as well as shores from the Inland Seto Sea to Osaka Bay. The timeframe is generally from now into Friday morning for these areas. Further north, along the shores of Tokyo and the vicinity, strong coastal winds of 70 to 100km/h are forecast from Thursday night into Friday afternoon, along with torrential rainfall locally. The system will veer northeastward, and exit the eastern shores near or south of Tokyo on Friday. The storm is then likely to upgrade to T4 intensity (120 to 166km/h), and will complete ETT (Extra-tropical transition) by this weekend. Stay safe Japan, while the general strength of this system is not very noteworthy on tropical cyclone standards, conditions may suddenly deteriorate during convective squalls leading to damaging winds and torrential rainfall. #tropicalstormpeipah #TropicalDepression21W #Japan #Japanstorm #typhoon

Andrew Van Gameren

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Region: CA

Wednesday 03 September 2025 19:29:13 GMT