Quick Thoughts
Region: US
Thursday 18 September 2025 20:45:34 GMT
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Bob Oblaw :
isn't this like saying the last result in roulette effects the next one? they are independent of each other.
2025-09-18 21:48:01
121
Shaub :
they're independent variables. you have to put the ball back in the bag. its 50%. your table is incorrect. your table represents 2 children being MB and looking for a 3rd. one side has to assigned as correct. youve kept the ambiguity after knowing one result.
2025-09-18 21:23:28
85
Randy Wells965 :
how did you make it easier
2025-09-22 03:43:21
0
Reefman75 :
it's 50%, the day of the week has no impact on that binary outcome. anybody can be born any day.
2025-09-19 00:08:42
50
Johnny_SC :
Make the same agurment with two dice or two coins. I DARE YOU.
2025-09-19 02:02:41
16
Ayavei, MD 𓂅 :
Nope, nope, nope. You can’t convince me, unless the girl also had a stipulation of day she was born. Being born a boy on Tuesday, doesn’t change the probability of the next child being boy or girl. Again, unless there is a stipulation on when the girl was born. I flipped heads yesterday at 11:17 am, what are the chances I flip tails today?
2025-09-19 07:40:00
24
umayb-right :
sorry, but you are wrong. the day of the week has 0 relationship with the information given
2025-09-19 21:52:48
4
chrisb7877 :
Isn’t it 50/50? How does the day of the week effect the probability of gender?
2025-09-19 05:56:25
4
Noah :
I don’t understand why the second child couldn’t also be a boy born on a Tuesday. Isn’t the 51.8% derived from excluding this possibility?
2025-09-18 21:00:38
5
johnlutherbarnhar :
But if they don’t tell you, the boy is still a morning boy or evening boy. So why would it change the probability? Just because you know something else about the child? That thing is always there. The day of the week or time of day has nothing to do with it.
2025-09-19 03:51:18
1
georgechen305 :
Yea I don’t agree. The probability is 50/50. Consider the experiment if you continue to add detail to the circumstances around the boy and thus increase the number of combinations possible. You would approach 50/50. Now consider I said nothing about when the boy was born. You would say now the odds are 66.7%. However we know the boy must be born on SOME day.
2025-09-19 12:33:15
0
Mr. C :
The probability would be 49%. The birth of a child is a unique event unaffected by another birth, for parents with only two children. And boys are slightly more likely to be born than girls. So regardless of what the one child is, the probability for the other child is conpeletely independent and will just be whatever the average gender distribution is.
2025-09-18 21:25:32
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Max STeele :
Born on a Tuesday is an irrelevant piece of information, unless there is non equal chance of each day, in which case you’d need to apply weighting to each day. So you have BB, BG,GB, GG as options. When she says that one is a boy it only cuts the GG option. Then the question of chancethe other is a girl is 2/3
2025-09-19 17:18:33
0
IdleKingLittleProfits :
My parents died and now I’m a mourning boy
2025-09-18 21:10:23
233
Your Daily Football Yapper :
It’s 50%, no variables factor in the next baby
2025-09-20 01:41:24
0
WaterTok :
Incorrect. No information was provided about the second child. The second child could also be a boy born on a Tuesday without invalidating the statement. They are independent events. If it had said “only” one, that would be different.
2025-09-19 02:25:37
2
JN :
I really can’t understand in my brain how the probability changes because she mentioned the child was born on Tuesday
2025-09-19 11:45:04
0
Jojo 🇮🇱🫱🏽🫲🏾🇵🇸🕊️ :
So if Mary tells you "One of my children is a boy born on May 3rd, 09:52:05.657966392554 am, it means the chance the other child is a girls is effectively 50%, right?
2025-09-18 21:06:29
4
kalifumestokalifa :
wait, if she told me that one is a boy and is born on June 15th then the chance is closer to 50%? like saying morning boy makes it more likely that the other child is girl than saying that it is a boy born on Tuesday and saying that he was born on 15th of June makes it even less probable that the other child is a girl?
2025-09-19 16:39:05
0
... :
I flipped two coins. The first is a morning heads. What is the probability the second is a tails? 4/7. Is this not equivalent? Is it because the time you flip the coin is controlled/chosen but the time you have a child is basically random? Or is the answer also 4/7 for the coins?
2025-09-19 15:41:58
0
Ryan Hunt :
The distinction between Statistics and Probability is key here. This is a statistics problem not a probability problem. The question is in regards to an existing set of randomly distributed data, not about predicting the future outcome of a random process, hence why the variable independence is not relevant here.
2025-09-19 04:13:49
0
Awilly :
no, sorry, I think you messed up on the top graph... we already know that if 1 child is a boy, its 66.6% that the other is a girl... not 50%
2025-09-19 17:47:10
0
UglyChef :
No. Probability mathematicians have never played roulette. The answer is 50%
2025-09-19 16:40:38
0
David :
Two events are totally independent. So mixing up possibilities would be incorrect. In your calculation MB-EG is twice as possible as MB-MB.but why? No justification
2025-09-21 08:26:44
1
loganvanover416 :
This is flawed reasoning. The fallacy is in assuming that all possibilities in the table are equally likely.
2025-09-18 21:13:44
1
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