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@mattycauso: all in good fun#bns #bnsute #bnsutes #commodore #ballute
MattyCauso
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Region: AU
Sunday 12 October 2025 01:17:14 GMT
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Brett Neven :
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2025-10-14 03:37:00
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it looks like it could be a wild ride through the next 48 hours. Citrus to Sarasota Counties & points east: Still no direct impacts. There may be some minor flooding during high tide. If you live in an area where roads sometimes flood during King Tides, then you will likely see that in this storm. As the storm moves north, the rain will also move north & we'll likely see some sun Fri/Sat/Sun with pop-up storms but not the gray, rainy weather we've seen all week. PANHANDLE & COASTAL ALABAMA: INTENSITY: After taking a pause from strengthening earlier this afternoon, Isaias shows definite signs of a quickly organizing storm. The system is passing over a pocket of warm water, which is likely helping. Shear is light enough to overcome but will be increasing as it approaches the coast, which "should" weaken the storm somewhat as it approaches. Models differ from Cat 1 near landfall to Cat 2. Google DeepMind even suggests the storm may reach Cat 3 intensity overnight before rapidly weakening just before landfall. Intensity forecasting is the most difficult when it comes to the overall hurricane forecast & it is where our skills are weakest. WIND: No matter the intensity, folks in the Panhandle & coastal Alabama need to prepare for a serious hurricane. Power outages will be the biggest concern with this system & the most common impact. Winds will down trees & power lines, and some may lose power for many days. SURGE: 5-7' of surge at & just to the right of the point of landfall will be the biggest concern. The highest surge number will happen in a very small area on the right side of the eyewall. Most will get 3-6' surges, though it's possible those extend pretty far east b/c of the shape of the coast & shallow water offshore. Noticeable water rises are likely to the Florida Big Bend Friday PM into early Saturday morning. If the storm stays relatively small, like it is now, then the area impacted by strong surge would stay relatively small. TORNADOES: These are hard to predict in tropical systems but b/c of the storm's small size, strong shear, & quick forward motion, the setup is there for an above-average number of tornadoes with this storm. ➡️This tornado threat will extend across the Panhandle, Big Bend, western Georgia & the eastern 2/3 of Alabama (east of the track of the center). The danger is that tornadoes in Alabama are likely to happen overnight into Saturday morning, while people are asleep, making them even more dangerous. 🚨Having a reliable weather alert system, like a weather radio, is important. Panama City, Dothan, Tallahassee, Montgomery, Troy, Auburn, Birmingham, Huntsville, and Columbus are just some of the towns that may be impacted by this threat🚨 I know that's a lot of info and much can still change based on how strong this system gets & how much the shear impacts it near landfall. Whatever happens, it's clear: The next 48 hours across the Southeast will be busy. #florida #Hurricane #Isaias #landfall
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