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➡️ Quantitative Finance from scratch part 12 closes season 1.  Every part was one step in a single story about a bet with an edge, and every number below comes from that part's own run. Part 1, expected value: a $1 bet on red wins 18 times out of 37, so it loses 2.7 cents on average, and over a million bets the casino made $27,288. Part 2, the random walk: coin flips add up to something that looks like a stock chart, and the same edge becomes a drift of 2.7 cents per step. Part 3, the square root rule: after 100 random steps the typical distance is about 10, because randomness grows with the square root of time. Part 4, the bell curve: many small random steps build it, with 68 % of results within one standard deviation. Part 5, returns: percent moves multiply, so after -50 % you need +100 % to get back. Part 6, present value: at 5 % interest, $100 paid in ten years is worth $61.39 today. Part 7, volatility: two investments with the same average swing about 4 % and 32 % a year. Part 8, the Sharpe ratio (William F. Sharpe, 1966): extra return per unit of risk, 0.36 for the wild investment and 0.99 for the calm one. Part 9, volatility drag: +50 % and then -50 % leaves you 25 % down. Part 10, correlation: the less two assets move together, the less a 50/50 mix swings, from 19 % down to 10 %. Part 11, diversification: ten assets cut the risk from 20 % to 12.2 %, above a floor of 11 % that the shared market sets (Markowitz,
➡️ Quantitative Finance from scratch part 12 closes season 1. Every part was one step in a single story about a bet with an edge, and every number below comes from that part's own run. Part 1, expected value: a $1 bet on red wins 18 times out of 37, so it loses 2.7 cents on average, and over a million bets the casino made $27,288. Part 2, the random walk: coin flips add up to something that looks like a stock chart, and the same edge becomes a drift of 2.7 cents per step. Part 3, the square root rule: after 100 random steps the typical distance is about 10, because randomness grows with the square root of time. Part 4, the bell curve: many small random steps build it, with 68 % of results within one standard deviation. Part 5, returns: percent moves multiply, so after -50 % you need +100 % to get back. Part 6, present value: at 5 % interest, $100 paid in ten years is worth $61.39 today. Part 7, volatility: two investments with the same average swing about 4 % and 32 % a year. Part 8, the Sharpe ratio (William F. Sharpe, 1966): extra return per unit of risk, 0.36 for the wild investment and 0.99 for the calm one. Part 9, volatility drag: +50 % and then -50 % leaves you 25 % down. Part 10, correlation: the less two assets move together, the less a 50/50 mix swings, from 19 % down to 10 %. Part 11, diversification: ten assets cut the risk from 20 % to 12.2 %, above a floor of 11 % that the shared market sets (Markowitz, "Portfolio Selection", Journal of Finance, 1952). The big picture: how big the edge is, how much it swings, and how much of that swing you can spread away. Season 2 brings portfolios, bets and evidence. This video is for education only, and nothing in it is financial advice. #quantfinance #finance #riskmanagement #portfolio #probability

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