@thesolarireport: China’s Data Tell Us That a Structural Shift Is Coming—and Global Leaders Are Freaking Out at the Implications "China’s Real Economic Risks with Carlos Alegría and Ed Dowd" This week, I am joined by Carlos Alegría (CEO) and Edward “Ed” Dowd (founding partner) of Phinance Technologies. As macroeconomic consultants, their core expertise is a high-integrity, data-driven focus on the underlying forces that tend to remain “invisible and neglected by most market participants.” Phinance has just released a major report on China’s economic outlook for 2026, as well as a major report on the U.S. economic outlook. In this discussion, we take a serious look at the economic risks that China will be forced to confront in the coming year and beyond. Our discussion focuses on three areas: - Demographics: In the aftermath of the One Child Policy, China’s population is shrinking—and that has significant economic implications. - GDP and Debt: Relative to the U.S., China’s GDP has declined. In 2025, China managed to achieve a 5% growth rate through strong exports, but to keep it going, they will need to continue to “export, export, export”—with ramifications for the economies being flooded with China’s cheap goods. China has also doubled its money supply. - Real Estate: China’s real estate problem is getting worse, not better. When the bubble bursts, Alegría and Dowd have serious concerns about a possible worldwide real estate contagion. Both of my guests bring a wealth of credentials permitting a nuanced and informed discussion of China’s economic realities. Alegría, originally trained as a physicist before turning to quantitative finance, has dual PhDs in optoelectronics and finance. While working at a large London-based hedge fund at the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis, he was shocked to realize that almost no one saw it coming. He is author of the 2017 book, Economic Cycles, Debt, and Demographics. During the height of the Covid injection rollout, Dowd earned our deep appreciation for his powerful “Cause Unknown” book, his integrity, and his clarity in giving voice to the “died suddenly” phenomenon—and its economic implications. Before cofounding Phinance with Alegría, he had a lengthy career on Wall Street, including as a portfolio manager at BlackRock. This is an interview that helps adjust the picture that most Western financial professionals have about China, by, as Alegría puts it on the Phinance website, “separating information (signal) from noise.” For those who manage a family office, institutional assets, or family savings, and are likely affected by what happens in China and by the Trump administration’s trade policies, these Phinance reports offer valuable intelligence. #China #gold #economics #preciousmetals #chineseeconomy

Catherine Austin Fitts

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Tuesday 10 February 2026 14:49:02 GMT