Tater :
what REALLY would have happened... First: The Texas Republic had territory extending into modern Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, and Oklahoma. So the structure and annexation of those states would be non-existent or at least different. (Example, ALL of Colorado and New Mexico were in Texas lands, While only parks of Arizona and Wyoming, and only the Panhandle of Oklahoma were inside of it).
Second: Mexico almost Certainly would not validate the sovereignty of the Texas Republic and yes, another war would probably ensue. My guess is this would break out around the same time as the Civil War and the Union would be too weak to help Texas again. This leads to a split possibility of: A) The Confederacy makes an alliance with Texas or they outright join the Confederacy and history plays out similarly from there, except Mexico comes out of the war weakened and probably remains a country with the same territory. or B) Texas asks to join or ally with the Confederacy in return for help with Mexico, but is refused due to the struggle with the Union. You now have a 4 nation conflict where no one is in alliance with eachother, but only 2 factions are fighting eachother: North vs. South and Texas vs. Mexico. Without the help from anyone in the East, Mexico advances and reclaims Texas. The Union wins the Civil War all the same and Reconstruction begins. The difference here in scenario B) brings us to
Part 3: Confederate loyalists flee to Indian Territory and try to regroup a new nation based on Confederate values and Texan reclamation in exchange for offering Native tribes full citizenship. Texas rallies back with a surge of former Confederates with nothing to lose, and Mexico, having exhausted everything it had to win the war would suffer great casualties further and quickly surrender. The Texas Republic remains, now with full control of all Mexican territory, and Annexing Indian Territory. The Union, in a similar position as Mexico, would be too focused on Reconstruction to bother with retaliation to reclaim Indian Territory and a tension-ridden truce would be made between the two nations at the Treaty of Ft. Smith in Arkansas at the border of former Indian Territory
2026-04-24 18:27:35