@philosophyminis: I thought that smoking was bad for me and that exercise was good. And yet, when I spoke to my mate Dave at the weekend in the pub, he told me about his uncle, who lived to 95 and yet smoked every day and never exercised once. This is an example of what philosophers and logicians call the 'anecdotal fallacy,' it is when we mistakenly use one story to override a general pattern. It's when somebody denies climate change because of one cold winter, or assumes seat belts aren't effective because they know a story about somebody who survived a crash without one. It's when we let one anecdotal story override mountains of evidence. 4 00 years ago, and before our talk of fallacies and biases, the philosopher Francis Bacon called this the idol of the cave. This is our tendency to trust our limited personal experiences over broader truths. We live in our own small caves of experience, and we assume that what we see there represents the whole world. The problem is that humans retain stories more than statistics. We remember the headline of the plane crash, rather than the millions who fly safely every day. We don't know anybody who's had a crash in the car while using their phone, and so we carry on doing so. The problem is that this leads to terrible decisions. We fear flying while we text in the car. We trust our uncle's advice over the general expert consensus. Bacon's message is as important today as it was back then. Do not confuse the shadows on your own cave wall for reality, because one story is only one data point. The general pattern, and the general rule, is often more important than the exception.

omar_x245 :

Survivorship bias

george :

My mate used the anecdotal fallacy in every argument he ever used and it didn’t affect him so it doesn’t matter

Em :

France is bacon

PJMaybe :

Marc Monroy :

People like to argue for the sake of argument.

scotty :

Climate change isn’t real though

rvj :

Religion versus science

🇺🇳🌍🇪🇺 :

“knowledge is power, france is bacon”

Vani :

critical thinking is indeed critical

srcr :

When I hear this I often quote the fact that somebody survived a fall from a plane at an altitude of 10km. So we don’t need parachutes anymore. The absurdity usually highlights the fallacy in the other’s statement.

Mr. Suh :

How many athletes live pass 80 years?

Illusive :

People like to believe. They don’t like to think.

YAFONOOB :

"we fear flying yet we text while driving" wow, that's pretty deep.

Kreiven :

since covid i don't trust what studies, scientists, doctors, and government bodies tell what is good or bad to us... in fact i do the opposite 👍

frankb_lds :

Survivors bias

𝔊𝔬𝔱𝔥𝔣𝔞𝔱𝔥𝔢𝔯 :

This also links up with the false consensus effect where we estimate our own lives and beliefs to be "the norm".

Ligia Koijen | philosopher 🪼 :

New patterns and new knowledge often arise from exceptions and mistaking exceptions for counter-examples is a common fallacy. And realizing the exception doesn’t necessary dismisses the pattern, well done can just refine the pattern.

Lots of Opinions Nobody :

don't believe everything you think ❤️

James :

climate?🤣🤣🤣🤣...no

Clifford Nyirenda :

It is proof by counterexample. The fallacy could be the claim though. if it is a hasty generalisation. smoking is bad for you is not an accurate statement logically rather smoking may be bad for you.

Liam :

So what you’re saying is that I should keep smoking?

user5648995052272 :

but geniue question how can someone who smokes daily still be able to live a long life

Harrison :

That cave was first Plato's mate 😁

OlvarMark :

but smoking is bad, it doesn't mean u will die using it, overall BAD