@philosophyminis: The Cobra Effect is when we start optimising for our measurements and we forget what those measurements are for. And it starts with a story. During the British colonial rule of India, there was a cobra problem in Delhi. And so the government brought in a bounty on any cobras brought in. At first it worked. People caught the cobras, brought them in, and collected their money. But soon a few entrepreneurial sorts realised it was hard to catch wild cobras, and so they started to breed them in their own homes. They bred them, they killed them, and they cashed in. The government got wind of this, and so they cancelled the programme. And now all of these breeders had thousands of cobras with nothing to do with them. And so they released them into the wild. The problem was worse at the end than it was at the start. The Cobra Effect is when we try to measure a hospital by their waiting list, and so they change the definition of ‘waiting.’ It is when we measure the success of a school by grades, and so the curriculum becomes narrowly focused on what you can assess. It’s when social media platforms try to reduce harmful content by flagging certain words, users just invent new spellings and codes that the algorithms can’t catch. The Cobra Effect is about the danger of measurement. It is when the things that we track — our fitness rings, our salary, our follower count — stop becoming indicators, but the goal themselves. And so, the question becomes when did we start optimising for our metrics rather than the things that the metrics were for?

Jonny Thomson
Jonny Thomson
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Friday 20 March 2026 14:22:01 GMT
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eldarkamalov
eldark :
It's closely related to Goodhart's law that states "when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure". Or as he said himself "Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes"
2026-03-20 14:39:39
383
dillingerthantsha
dillingerthantsha :
whats the name of the one about rat tails !?
2026-05-26 13:21:34
1
waaaaaaaitwhat
waaaaaaaitwhat :
This biggest example of this is capitalism itself. The success of a company is measured by how much money they make. Therefore money is the target, and any other aspect of success is lost (good product, respected partner, content employees who are able to live full lives and contribute in other ways, positive impact on local or world environment).
2026-03-23 07:14:53
50
shockedsalamander
Shockedsalamander :
Fast food restaurants started measuring how long people are having to wait in line at the window so now they move you up to a parking spot for you to wait there instead of at the window
2026-03-21 03:59:03
41
drivingbye
Driving by :
It’s the same idea that police think more laws and more fines would change driving behaviour. It is one tool, that’s it. It catches people unawares and makes money for the state. Fines have been given out since 1889 yet the problem is worse than it has ever been.
2026-03-21 07:59:05
2
sidehustle720
Tiktoktik :
Oh AI bench marking?
2026-04-07 15:25:10
1
lucasgholmes
lucas :
The effect that the story describes could be compared to the effect the e-cigarettes and vapes have had on young people. Designed as a less harmful version of cigarettes, they were mean to be a step down for smokers, but now are often a stepping stool into smoking for many young people.
2026-06-14 10:07:40
2
rocio.cortez847
Rocio Cortez :
vanity sizing
2026-04-23 22:07:18
0
antilogically
Ant :
League tables for schools and hospitals drive me nuts. They seem to forget that, no matter how well equipped, there will always be a last place. You could give every one of them the EXACT same resources, but one of them will still be at the bottom. It's nothing but an excuse to close them down, or pressurise the rest
2026-05-28 16:56:16
1
kitdoh
kitdoh :
you get what you inspect, not what you expect
2026-03-21 01:56:53
11
the_astounding_diskonaut
diskonaut :
I’m a university lecturer, and it baffles me that higher education does this a lot. Ranking lists are one example, publication points another. It has lead the whole of academia to publish more rather than better research.
2026-03-22 22:40:07
10
sciencemutt
Robots Dream of Electric Sheep :
I hope this does not apply to index funds
2026-04-07 10:34:31
1
precision_pt
precision_pt :
When the measure becomes the goal, it ceases to be the measure
2026-03-21 01:51:12
3
jexposurapy
Jo Luno :
This is similar to / also known as Goodhart’s Law! (“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure”)
2026-04-15 22:37:02
1
snusdzilla
snusdzilla :
Fix the root, not the symptoms.
2026-03-23 01:09:20
3
shayxin0
shayxin0 :
I’d seen it defined as ‘an incentive used to solve a problem that unintentionally makes it worse’. Both can apply to the original story, but it seems a very different definition.
2026-03-21 04:03:53
1
dipswitch01
Dipswitch01 :
Like measuring visits, and suddenly all calls, interactions and meetings become "visits"
2026-03-20 16:10:42
7
digestives4
Nuzie 🙃 :
I enjoy your posts , they are very thought-provoking.
2026-03-20 21:50:28
45
theragra
Vlad :
A very famous example is measuring how many lines of code were written in programming (KLOCs). In 80s and 90s we understood it was a terrible idea. And now, with vibe coding, it is back!
2026-03-21 05:55:42
5
cephalon2
J :
I think the best example is GDP. By all measurements, our economy is fantastic!
2026-04-26 20:25:29
1
miseruv
miseruv :
Very cool
2026-03-20 14:32:17
2
leap.of
David Faith :
What were they measuring in the story? Not sure how it's related.
2026-03-25 18:01:05
1
sbudashap
Sbudashap :
Never assume people will behave how you expect just because you think it’s right.
2026-03-21 12:12:39
1
sad.astronomer
Sad Astronomer :
this is where modern machine lesrning a.k.a AI is now, they created a beautiful algorithm able.to comprehend human laguage and now they optimise it for stuff with no additional value at all
2026-03-23 22:31:15
2
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