@lisarqrsedb: Monty Hall problem: Why is the probability of winning higher when changing doors?#MontyHallProblem #ProbabilityFacts#podcast #foryou #Science

blanktom9 :

People continue to get this wrong. It’s in your best interest to stay with the door you originally picked. Doing so gives you the highest chance of winning the goat.

BJ Forrest :

Easy mode. It’s 1 million doors. You pick one. The host opens 999998 doors that don’t have a car. Do you switch or do you think you got it right the first time?

David Craig :

Has it ever ben done.. like 100 times with random people to see what works best? 🤔

Team Mallards :

Every choice is always 50/50. You either win the prize goat, or u get the boring car.

Demi :

Ohhhhhhhhhhhh I finally GET it!!!! Your odds dont change when the host reveals a goat, it was 1/3rd when you picked it, so it stays 1/3rd when 1 is revealed, but the closed door MUST absorb that other third because the host knows where the goat is!!!

Snarky.B :

It has absolutely nothing to do with the hosts knowledge of where the goats are. The only fact that matters is that the door that was opened was not the car. There is a 33% chance your door has the car, and a 67% chance it’s behind one of the other two doors. Once a door is opened and it’s a goat, there is still a 67% chance that the car is in one of those two doors, but you now know not to pick the one the goat is in, so the full 67% chance is in the other door.

CopterHat :

get rid of opening the door. "would you like to stay with your first guess or switch to BOTH OF THE OTHER DOORS" that's what's happening

Bianca 🇦🇺 :

This explanation finally made me understand it, and then I drew it out to prove it to myself, and yes, it's 2/3 correct if you switch, 1/3 correct if you don't switch. You have a 1/3 chance of pick a car and 2/3 chance of picking a goat on the first round, so after the host reveals a goat, if you picked a goat in the first round you will get a car by switching (2/3 chance of getting a car by switching).

Ryan Hollywood :

It’s the small scale that confuses people I think. I once tried explaining it by writing down a number between 1-1000 and saying to someone “guess which number I wrote” they would guess a number which statistically would be wrong 999/1000. I would then tell them “it’s either the number you said, or it’s x, do you want to change your guess?” with x being the number that I wrote down. Did this 10 times and they were right every time they switched and wrong every time they didn’t. Funny that

user6279111412134 :

The problem as stated is actually incorrect - not because of maths but because of incomplete info. Nowhere does it say that the host was always going to open a second door. What if he only did that cos you chose the car?

TheRealLogDog :

the second the host reveals the wrong door, it's an entirely new game.

FreeTimG :

this is the best description of the problem I've heard so far. basically, if it was truly random which door they revealed by a roll of the dice, the advantage would go away. The host's knowledge and intentional choosing of which door to open first destroys the randomness and creates an advantage/disadvantage

Oak :

you will never gaslight me into believing that one out of two is anything but 50/50 odds.

The Highlander 🏔️ :

Best way to understand is to imagine there are 100 doors, you pick one, then the host opens 98 doors with goats, would you switch? Yes.

mechadeer :

The best way to teach someone Monty hall is change 3 doors to 100. Reveal 98 goats and ask if you wanna switch. The principal is still true with 3, it’s just easier to see with more.

Phil Woodford :

I just think this is a really crap gameshow.

Mindputty :

I think the best way to make people see the logic is to change the number of doors to pick from and the number of doors revealed. make it 100 doors and 98 are revealed. would you switch then?

Acrobatty :

Pick the right door and switch, you lose. Pick the wrong door and switch, you win. You pick the wrong door 2 out of 3 times. 🤷‍♂️

Oliver Kapler :

FINALLY SOMEONE MAKES THIS MAKE SENSE TO ME. THANK YOU MICHAEL

Trenton :

LastNOer :

Never understood the logic before this explanation. Thank you.

Ravishka Mendis :

best explanation I've ever heard

WarDamnBham :

I hear it, get confused about the answer, then it clicks, and years later I hear it again and get confused again.

Jeff Foster :

Man heard this explained about three different ways. And it makes no sense.

either that or Muhammad :

Wow, I actually understand it now