@theosophicalwanderings: #parsimony #philosophy #probability #debate #dunningkrugereffect

Theosophical Wanderings
Theosophical Wanderings
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Friday 03 April 2026 18:50:08 GMT
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peacefuljeff
Nikolas Slanddovis :
Because slogans are rewarded in the marketplace of ideas. the more simple an idea the more attractive it becomes and is perpetuated as a result.
2026-04-03 19:11:37
3
patrockstarr
transient :
it's because when you multiply probabilities together the product keeps getting smaller. The probability that today it will rain at some point and it will snow at some point is smaller than just one or the other
2026-04-03 20:28:48
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scholastic.sage
scholastic.sage :
The 3 pages analogy seems to be a more biased analogy where Swinburne posits an analogy that already has an indicator for why it would likely be one author.
2026-04-08 15:59:28
1
rexsearationis
◇¬∄x 𝘼𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙣𝘽𝙧𝙤 ╋━ :
I definitely think parsimony is an integral component for rational belief in philosophy as a prima fascia starting-point for epistemic conservativism, but there’s a strange rigidity in entity subordination that happens in Bayesian epistemology when it comes to updating with priors never being upended—even in the face of better explanatory power.
2026-04-04 02:02:32
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arivajrarcanus
AriVajrArcanus :
its probability based on its complexity nature usually finds path of least resistance in its complexity which means less is more effective
2026-04-03 23:23:17
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lime_hell
Lime :
both are these are bad analogies because they just play on our credence of authorship
2026-04-16 08:44:07
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new2phil
Apostle🇻🇦 :
The goat Huemer
2026-04-03 19:04:19
4
armor722
Armor :
3 books written by 3 different authors is more probable. Three pages written by 3 different authors is more probable. Three pages which read continuously by 1 author is more probable. Three books that read continuously is virtually guaranteed to be the same author.
2026-04-06 14:35:23
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