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I am always looking for signs of a pattern shift as we move closer to winter. This morning, I found one. The top image shows what the GFS model is showing for jet stream placement and strength on November 2. The bottom image should be familiar by now. This is the textbook illustration of what an El Niño winter pattern looks like. Now, before we talk about specific storms, timing, rain amounts, wind, etc., remember I am talking about a potential pattern shift more than 2 weeks away. A few days from now, this advertised pattern shift from the models could completely evaporate. So why even mention it? 1. This gives communities an early heads-up to start paying more attention to what MIGHT be coming. This is especially important in the fall season, before we have had any significant storms. 2. It will help you filter out all the garbage clickbait posts you may be seeing in your social feeds, with real information that you can base real decisions on. That will be important (especially this winter). What I see on social media, and well, the media in general, is, in many instances, amateur hour. I have been forecasting on a daily basis in California for nearly 25 years. My job has been, and always will be, to bring you the most accurate information I can. I won't always be right. Any meteorologist worth his/her salt would admit that, but I will use my 25 years of experience to keep bringing you trusted weather information in a calm way to keep you, your family, and your property safe and protected.
I am always looking for signs of a pattern shift as we move closer to winter. This morning, I found one. The top image shows what the GFS model is showing for jet stream placement and strength on November 2. The bottom image should be familiar by now. This is the textbook illustration of what an El Niño winter pattern looks like. Now, before we talk about specific storms, timing, rain amounts, wind, etc., remember I am talking about a potential pattern shift more than 2 weeks away. A few days from now, this advertised pattern shift from the models could completely evaporate. So why even mention it? 1. This gives communities an early heads-up to start paying more attention to what MIGHT be coming. This is especially important in the fall season, before we have had any significant storms. 2. It will help you filter out all the garbage clickbait posts you may be seeing in your social feeds, with real information that you can base real decisions on. That will be important (especially this winter). What I see on social media, and well, the media in general, is, in many instances, amateur hour. I have been forecasting on a daily basis in California for nearly 25 years. My job has been, and always will be, to bring you the most accurate information I can. I won't always be right. Any meteorologist worth his/her salt would admit that, but I will use my 25 years of experience to keep bringing you trusted weather information in a calm way to keep you, your family, and your property safe and protected.

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