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@viick_thayanee19: Quem quiser passo o contato ! Pedimos pela 99 🍔🍔🍔 #queroviralizar #bh #lanche #foryou #fyp

Viick_Thayanee
Viick_Thayanee
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Wednesday 15 April 2026 23:35:12 GMT
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ladysoaress
Lady Soares :
Haha 😋
2026-04-15 23:52:36
0
tofoli_claudinha1
🍓⚡️_claudinha_Comprinhas⚡️🍓 :
Eu quero 🤤
2026-04-16 12:51:24
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Why does the stock market move every single day? On paper, a price is a forecast of every future dividend, discounted. By 1981, every dividend the S&P had paid since 1871 was known, so Shiller computed the price a forecaster who could see the future would have set. That series is a slow, smooth curve, actual prices swing wildly around it, and a forecast can never be more volatile than what it forecasts. T he bound is violated by a factor of five to thirteen. Even 1929 was never justified by the dividends that followed, and rescuing the model would take real discount rates ranging from roughly -6% to +15%. The Nobel committee cited this finding in 2013. -> the test rejects a joint hypothesis: rational prices AND a stable discount rate, let rates move freely and the model becomes untestable, Shiller says so himself -> it assumes the dividend trend is known: Marsh-Merton (1986), Flavin (1983), Kleidon (1986) attacked this, later bounds (West 1988, Campbell-Shiller 1988) still found excess volatility -> the paper flags its own problem: one enormous dividend move never seen in sample could rescue the model -> p* needs a terminal value, but its weight at the start is 0.008, so the choice barely matters -> LeRoy-Porter (1981) found the same violation independently; the modern rational reading is time-varying expected returns, not irrationality Shiller (1981),
Why does the stock market move every single day? On paper, a price is a forecast of every future dividend, discounted. By 1981, every dividend the S&P had paid since 1871 was known, so Shiller computed the price a forecaster who could see the future would have set. That series is a slow, smooth curve, actual prices swing wildly around it, and a forecast can never be more volatile than what it forecasts. T he bound is violated by a factor of five to thirteen. Even 1929 was never justified by the dividends that followed, and rescuing the model would take real discount rates ranging from roughly -6% to +15%. The Nobel committee cited this finding in 2013. -> the test rejects a joint hypothesis: rational prices AND a stable discount rate, let rates move freely and the model becomes untestable, Shiller says so himself -> it assumes the dividend trend is known: Marsh-Merton (1986), Flavin (1983), Kleidon (1986) attacked this, later bounds (West 1988, Campbell-Shiller 1988) still found excess volatility -> the paper flags its own problem: one enormous dividend move never seen in sample could rescue the model -> p* needs a terminal value, but its weight at the start is 0.008, so the choice barely matters -> LeRoy-Porter (1981) found the same violation independently; the modern rational reading is time-varying expected returns, not irrationality Shiller (1981), "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?", American Economic Review 71(3), 421-436. Free version: https://www.nber.org/papers/w0456 #finance #quant #trading #algotrading #stocks

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