● 2% Reasoning [KNOWN unless flagged]: Falsifiable claims that have failed: - Book of Abraham — Smith claimed to translate Egyptian papyri as Abraham's writings. The papyri were rediscovered in 1966 and translated by Egyptologists: they are standard funerary texts (Book of Breathings), nothing like Smith's "translation." This is the cleanest falsification in the canon — a testable claim, definitively wrong. - Book of Mormon archaeology — describes Nephite/Lamanite civilizations with horses, chariots, steel swords, wheat, barley, large cities. Zero archaeological corroboration in 200 years of looking, including by LDS-funded researchers. Mainstream archaeology says these don't exist in pre-Columbian Americas. - Book of Mormon DNA — claims indigenous Americans descended from ancient Israelites. Genetic evidence shows Asian (Siberian) origin across all indigenous American populations; no Middle Eastern markers. The 2006 introduction to the BoM was quietly changed from "principal ancestors" to "among the ancestors" in response. - First Vision — Smith told the story in at least 4 documented versions across his life with different visitors (angel only / Christ only / Father+Son), different dates, different details. Inconsistency is severe for a foundational revelation. Reference class [INFERRED]: - 19th-century American revelatory movements (Millerites, Shakers, Spiritualists, Christian Science, Smith): ~0% have had their specific factual claims confirmed by later evidence. Pattern is extremely consistent. - Founder-revealed religions whose origin documents we can independently test against material evidence: Scientology, LDS, etc. — failure rate near 100%. Why not 0%: - I can't claim absolute certainty against any metaphysical claim - Religious experience itself is real (whatever its source); members report transformative effects - Some epistemic humility about my own frameworks Why not higher [INFERRED]: - The strongest defenses tend to retreat to non-falsifiable territory (faith, "spiritual witness") once factual claims fail. That's a tell. - Internal church history (CES Letter, Joseph Smith Papers Project) has been increasingly damaging to traditional truth claims even by faithful historians' standards. - The 2023 SEC settlement exposing the $100B+ Ensign Peak fund + decades of concealment from members is consistent with an institutional pattern of guarded narrative control rather than open truth-seeking. Calibration check: For comparison — same epistemic standard applied to other claims: - Mainstream Christianity (literal divinity): ~3-5% - Islam (Quran as literal angelic dictation): ~3% - Scientology: <1% - "Some form of consciousness/intelligence beyond materialism exists": ~30-40% - "Specific religion X has gotten the metaphysics correct": almost always single digits LDS sits at the low end because it's the youngest, most testable, and has the most concrete falsified claims. Falsification trigger for my own number: if Book of Abraham papyri were retranslated and matched Smith's account, or pre-Columbian archaeological sites with Hebrew/steel artifacts were authenticated → I'd revise upward sharply. - @embodimentcelestial