@muifainday2022typhoon: Hagupit is located 493 km east-southeast of Yap, and has tracked west-northwestward at 13 km/h (7 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 4.6 meters (15 feet). Hagupit is forecast to continue on a generally west-northwestward track throughout the entire forecast period, passing just south of Yap around 08/18:00 UTC. The track speed is expected to slow after 3 days as the primary steering ridge migrates slowly eastward, setting up a weak steering environment. Hagupit is forecast to increase in intensity to 75 km/h (40 knots) at 12 hours, then maintain 75 km/h (40 knots) over the next 2 days as environmental conditions limit any further intensification. The system is expected to begin weakening over the Philippine Sea after 2 days in an area of abundant dry mid-level air and increasing wind shear, becoming fully dissipated in 5 days. Model track guidance agrees on a west-northwestward track, however, the cross-track spread at 3 days has increased to 324 km in the latest model run. Notably, the GFS deterministic guidance makes up the northernmost track, suggesting a trajectory that passes about 65 km northeast of Yap in around 36 hours. The earlier divergence of track guidance translates to a cross-track spread of 602 km in 5 days. The disparity in track guidance is largely attributable to uncertainty in the steering environment as a subtropical ridge builds eastward from the South China Sea and Hagupit approaches the col between it and the current steering ridge to the northeast. The JTWC track forecast is placed near the multi-model consensus, which is representative of the bulk of model solutions, with high confidence over the next 3 days and medium confidence thereafter. Model intensity guidance bifurcates from today with a grouping that includes SHIPS solutions and two rapid intensification aids (FRIA and RI45) that suggest significant development to typhoon strength (as high as 185 km/h (100 knots) for FRIA) in 3 days. The remainder of guidance remains at or below 75 km/h (40 knots) for the entire forecast period. As environmental conditions are expected to preclude any rapid intensification scenario, the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with medium confidence among the latter grouping. Warning Number 8. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). #typhoon #tropicalstormhagupit #tropicalstorm #storms #westernpacific

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Thursday 07 May 2026 16:20:10 GMT