@axiommotion: An urn has 100 balls — n red and (100−n) green, where n is random from 0 to 100. You pull out a red ball. Is the next one more likely red, green, or equal? Over 50,000 people voted on this puzzle by mathematician Daniel Litt. Only 23% got it right. The answer is RED — probability exactly 2/3. Why? Drawing red is Bayesian evidence. It shifts your belief about how many red balls are in the urn. One observation. One update. Everything changes. #mathpuzzle #probability #bayesian #math #statistics #learnontiktok #mathtok #brainteaser #puzzle #urn #daniellitt #axiommotion #mathpitfalls #counterintuitive #twothirds #bayes #conditonalprobability #mathanimation #EduTok #stem

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Friday 08 May 2026 06:23:58 GMT