@markostradingjourney: Next 10 years will be breakeven or negative for S&P500. There is a simple market bubble indicator called the Shiller CAPE ratio. Here is a simple explanation for it by Claude: It's a price tag for the entire stock market, expressed as: "How many years of earnings am I paying for?" A CAPE of 17 means you're paying 17 years of average earnings to buy the market. A CAPE of 41 means you're paying 41 years. It tells you if stocks are expensive or cheap right now compared to history. CAPE around 17 → average CAPE around 10 → cheap CAPE around 30+ → expensive CAPE around 40+ → very expensive Current CAPE ratio is 41.6. Only number that was this high previously was in the year 2000. We had a 43.8 ratio. This was just before the DOTCOM crash. Once the CAPE ratio goes this high, the S&P500 returns in the next 10 years tend to be breakeven or negative. Is this fear porn? Is a crash coming? Should you sell equities? No. The CAPE ratio tells you that stocks are super expensive right now compared to history but it doesn't tell you the exact timing of a crash. The current AI race is the same thing as the DOTCOM bubble in the 2000s. New technology has been invented and everyone wants a piece of the pie. So the stock market has a huge rally and then a -50% crash. This is a normal market cycle. I believe we rally more. I am not seeing a top right now. AI story is still heating up. There are still buyers all over the world ready to get in. Veteran traders that I follow are still bullish. Yes the crash will most likely come in the next couple of years but you can make a lot of money right now if you buy the dip. Use a tight stoploss so that you are protected once the crash comes. I am focusing on the daily chart. Buying near the 20 EMA and then using a trailing stoploss to follow the trend. Simple. Rustic.
