Álvaro Lozano-Robledo
Region: US
Wednesday 27 May 2026 12:19:58 GMT
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purpleblossom :
If your probability of success is 1/n and you try n times, you have roughly 1 - 1/e chance of success!
2026-05-27 12:39:26
134
Scipio Africanus :
but you do notice that as the amount of trials increases, the chances of success becomes more probable
2026-05-27 20:05:56
7
oigt_ :
she's 100% right 😁, probability has no memory, doesn't depend on previous outcome, you just need luck, you might not even need 100 chances. you might get lucky 1st time, 5th time or even 98th time.
2026-05-27 17:48:47
1
Qhawe _Mntungwa :
assuming independence?
2026-05-27 19:13:53
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PotaTai :
She’s also wrong in the way that most people can only afford to fail for maybe 1-2 times before they go bankrupt
2026-05-27 19:31:22
24
SoulConflagration :
Missing a 1/100 chance a 1000 times is the same as losing ten coinflips in a row, and I'm sure most people have a memory of losing a 5050 10 times in a row. Luck isn't static though, some people succeed on attempt 1, and some go a thousand attempts without succeeding, but neither of these people is inherently more lucky, and their present luck is always subject to change.
2026-06-03 13:51:29
0
Robert Fontaine 🇨🇦 :
gambler's fallacy
2026-05-28 00:32:21
11
lowmeninyellowcoat :
lol. I blame raffles.🤣
2026-05-27 13:03:54
9
sesitxpglel :
Wouldn’t it be good if this was true tho? Or at least If there was a guarantee it would be the maximum number of times
2026-05-27 19:32:10
0
Sean Kelly6316 :
One CC talks about this regarding how likely it is to, in Pokemon generation 1, to encounter a Pikachu, when it has something like a 5% encounter rate in just one area, after say 20 (forget which number he used) encounters. It's actually much higher than 5%, being 1-(1-.05)^20 = 1-.95^20 = ~ .641514. I also like how you use complements twice in this technique: think that should be discussed more. Of course Pr(X) = 1-Pr(-X), -X meaning the complement of X, is fundamental to discuss here, but they additionally need to know the law of multiplication for independent events (we can only use this when we should fairly assume independent events, of course. Like with a series of n independent Bernoulli trials/distributions/ binary random variables, which leads to the Binomial Distribution etc.)
2026-05-27 16:27:06
1
Jason Choi258 :
the issue is a poor person gets 1 shot , while a rich person moves on to the next project.
2026-07-20 20:23:02
1
SubnetScout :
Wait… where did 500 come from? Does that have something to do with the p.values?
2026-05-28 02:26:44
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halfprize :
Ah, but what if you stop at the first success? Then we’re interested in the probability of the first H after a string of Ts.
2026-05-27 19:38:05
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ImYrMama :
1 - (1 - 1/100)^100 = 0.634 😅
2026-07-17 23:24:01
1
Adde :
You don't need all that math. The "probability" of anything is never 100% unless it happened. It's called a credence. Only what actually occurs is 100%, that's the definition.
2026-05-28 15:16:23
1
Apéry's number :
This is the classic case of large sample population and the gaussian distribution becomes narrow and narrow until it becomes a dirC Delta function_ the boltzmann distribution case. 😂😂😂
2026-05-29 23:16:08
0
Max A. :
Geometric distribution here😎
2026-05-27 15:33:58
6
Thingsfromplaces :
If you roll a 100 sided dice once it doesn’t become a 99 sided dice.
2026-05-28 04:53:46
3
jondoe :
lol
2026-05-28 04:03:02
1
Dane Jackson :
I love this stuff but I am terrible at math unfortch
2026-05-27 21:19:26
1
Sean Kelly6316 :
Yep, nice to explain. I've done it at least once, maybe more, times recently, but done it a lot over the years. And seen other CCs explain it, but the more the merrier. I think it would be great if they understand it more intuitively, which, having tutored stats 101 for a long time, I'd be happy to do more fully, if there's actually an interest in it and enough people to see it. A lot of people just don't find probability natural/intuitive ig, though not necessarily that surprised to realize this, eg given the Monty Hall problem (tho that one is easier to misunderstand, sure). It can be easy to make simple mistakes in probability unless you have the deeper conceptual understanding, which best comes from real analysis, measure theory, etc.
2026-05-27 16:08:23
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nefelibata :
Why nobody is questioning first how those probability of success is computed?
2026-05-27 20:35:34
1
framtidstro :
LMFAO
2026-05-31 10:07:31
1
PinkyTrent :
I deal with this while I’m hunting for my shiny Pokemon, the odds of getting one is 1/8192 so the odds of “failing” is 8191/8192 and then I raise it to whatever power (in this case 11400 since this is how many I saw) and so the chances I should’ve saw at least one is about 75%
2026-05-29 00:20:36
0
davis_kipchirchir_ :
thank you
2026-06-26 07:46:09
0
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