@bspconsultt: My Analyse Berrettini - Arnaldi 👇🏼 Arnaldi spent 17 hours and 42 minutes on court this tournament, while Berrettini spent 13 hours and 11 minutes. Not a massive gap on paper, but the context matters a lot here. Arnaldi played his two longest matches back-to-back in the last four days: 5 hours against Collignon followed by 5 hours 30 minutes against Tiafoe. As he put it himself: "I've played more in this tournament than in the whole year, and I didn't feel my legs in the last set anymore." Berrettini isn't exactly someone I trust physically either, and I never would have predicted he'd make it this far. Still, he arrives here with a lot more experience than Arnaldi and more importantly, he has two weapons that Arnaldi simply doesn't have: his serve and his forehand. When fatigue kicks in, he can still lean on those to win points more easily. Now the big question with Berrettini is how long his body can hold up, especially given how physically worrying he looked throughout the clay season and how little he showed during it. In terms of numbers, both players have posted very similar performances with Arnaldi slightly having ha higher ratio of w/ue per point. Value-wise, the model gives 1.89 for Berrettini. Factoring in market context, I would have priced him closer to 1.60. Conclusion: If I had to pick between the two, I'd go with Berrettini. He has that extra freshness, and when both players are tired, his weapons allow him to finish points more quickly. The roof should normally be closed today, but if it were open, that would be an additional edge for Berrettini. Now knowing him, and the fact that he was clearly a player I was looking to fade this tournament, 1.50 is on the short side and that's also why I'm keeping off this one. #rolandgarros #tennis #tennistv #rolandgarros2026

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Wednesday 03 June 2026 07:04:59 GMT