@yunggeeski: Do Dividend ETFs Actually Beat The S&P 500? This chart shows the rolling probability that DVY, one of the longest-running dividend ETFs, outperformed SPY over different holding periods. Each point asks: “If you bought DVY and SPY at the same time, then held for this many months, how often did DVY beat SPY?” Month 1 = 1-month holding periods Month 60 = 5-year holding periods Month 120 = 10-year holding periods And by Month 120, DVY only beat SPY 5.3% of the time. That means over 10-year rolling periods, the dividend ETF basically got smoked. And before the dividend cult starts crying, this uses adjusted close data, meaning dividends are included for both DVY and SPY. So this is not “you forgot the dividends.” The dividends are literally in the chart. They still lost. This is the problem with dividend obsession. People see a cash payout and think they discovered free money. They did not. They found a slower, less tax-efficient way to own equities while pretending income magically makes underperformance disappear. Dividends are not extra return. They are part of total return being handed back to you, often with tax drag attached. You are not getting richer because a company gives you $3 and your share price drops accordingly. That is not alpha. That is accounting with a dopamine hit. Dividend investors will ignore total return, ignore taxes, ignore opportunity cost, then brag about yield while getting lapped by the plain S&P 500. If your strategy needs you to ignore the chart, it is not a strategy. It is financial fan fiction. Source: Yahoo Finance adjusted close via quantmod. Monthly total-return data. DVY vs SPY. Follow for more charts like this.

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Friday 05 June 2026 15:59:56 GMT