@ilyas.abdulin: False Allegations - What Is The Rate Supported By The Data? This is part 2, where I actually try to put a number on the claim that under 1% of reported allegations are false. Using the most comprehensive study I could find on this specific category, the honest answer is that it depends heavily on how you define a false report and which denominator you use - the same cases can read as roughly 3% at the strictest, around 8-12% under the police classifications, and arguably higher under looser definitions. What it does not really support is a clean figure below 1%. I walk through the counting choices that move the number. #reaction #debate #logic #factcheck #criticalthinking #discussion #statistics #data
It is impossible to know the exact number of false allegations because we can only count those that have been identified or proven to be false. Some false allegations may never be discovered, so the reported number of false allegations may underestimate the true total
2026-07-01 17:21:12
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𒉭 :
realistically it's propably close to 30
2026-07-01 21:19:45
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ummwtf :
tiktok thinks im a fucking loser great
2026-07-02 01:19:35
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connorcolins5 :
I was falsely accused and I’m open to inquiries
2026-07-01 20:18:56
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Old Guy Rants :
There is a difference between proven false and false...
2026-07-01 17:56:51
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itsyaboyjeremy :
i-ilyas, youre so right, w-will you marry me
2026-07-01 17:09:05
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G :
The FBI did a similar study on a subset of cases (I think in 2017 New York based data) they came to a conclusion of 12% of cases were provably false.
2026-07-01 17:30:36
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digglett :
I mean we can truly never know for sure ?
2026-07-01 18:18:37
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Arnold886 :
Probably about 50 50
2026-07-01 17:05:59
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✯ :
My brain gets bigger every time he pops up on my fyp
2026-07-01 17:08:47
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I'm short :
I am genuinely fascinated by you, no glaze
2026-07-01 17:08:26
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Pineapple :
He mentioned examples that could be a false allegation if it was withdrawn, or not enough evidence etc. Sadly, also possible that some guilty verdicts were also from a false allegation. Fortunately, probably pretty rare.
2026-07-01 20:47:48
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Robert Todd Levin :
unfortunately more data on this wouldn't clear anything up because of inconsistent classification of the data
it just gets more complex
2026-07-01 20:22:46
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✯ :
watching this guy is like a breath of fresh air
2026-07-01 17:08:19
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Call me Sam :
Again, this statistic neglects cases where the report failed to include the crime and cases where the report itself is factually impossible.
2026-07-03 13:28:12
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wvsd2006 :
Great logic and statistical analysis
2026-07-01 17:08:32
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