@ilyas.abdulin: False Allegations - What Is The Rate Supported By The Data? This is part 2, where I actually try to put a number on the claim that under 1% of reported allegations are false. Using the most comprehensive study I could find on this specific category, the honest answer is that it depends heavily on how you define a false report and which denominator you use - the same cases can read as roughly 3% at the strictest, around 8-12% under the police classifications, and arguably higher under looser definitions. What it does not really support is a clean figure below 1%. I walk through the counting choices that move the number. #reaction #debate #logic #factcheck #criticalthinking #discussion #statistics #data

ilyas.abdulin
ilyas.abdulin
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Wednesday 01 July 2026 17:02:15 GMT
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oore697
oore :
It is impossible to know the exact number of false allegations because we can only count those that have been identified or proven to be false. Some false allegations may never be discovered, so the reported number of false allegations may underestimate the true total
2026-07-01 17:21:12
1561
user5728927572
𒉭 :
realistically it's propably close to 30
2026-07-01 21:19:45
226
ummmwtf1
ummwtf :
tiktok thinks im a fucking loser great
2026-07-02 01:19:35
45
connorcolins5
connorcolins5 :
I was falsely accused and I’m open to inquiries
2026-07-01 20:18:56
78
_old_guy_rants_
Old Guy Rants :
There is a difference between proven false and false...
2026-07-01 17:56:51
6
itsyaboyjeremymangos
itsyaboyjeremy :
i-ilyas, youre so right, w-will you marry me
2026-07-01 17:09:05
130
g38923
G :
The FBI did a similar study on a subset of cases (I think in 2017 New York based data) they came to a conclusion of 12% of cases were provably false.
2026-07-01 17:30:36
120
digglett3
digglett :
I mean we can truly never know for sure ?
2026-07-01 18:18:37
28
arnold886886
Arnold886 :
Probably about 50 50
2026-07-01 17:05:59
6
yk_domi28
✯ :
My brain gets bigger every time he pops up on my fyp
2026-07-01 17:08:47
77
im.short480
I'm short :
I am genuinely fascinated by you, no glaze
2026-07-01 17:08:26
89
rapidomen23
Pineapple :
He mentioned examples that could be a false allegation if it was withdrawn, or not enough evidence etc. Sadly, also possible that some guilty verdicts were also from a false allegation. Fortunately, probably pretty rare.
2026-07-01 20:47:48
57
rtl_au_420
Robert Todd Levin :
unfortunately more data on this wouldn't clear anything up because of inconsistent classification of the data it just gets more complex
2026-07-01 20:22:46
29
yk_domi28
✯ :
watching this guy is like a breath of fresh air
2026-07-01 17:08:19
33
samwisestrong
Call me Sam :
Again, this statistic neglects cases where the report failed to include the crime and cases where the report itself is factually impossible.
2026-07-03 13:28:12
5
wvsd2006
wvsd2006 :
Great logic and statistical analysis
2026-07-01 17:08:32
7
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