@horizongeopoliticalnews: Subscribe to our newsletter for more 📨 Geopolitics Daily 🌍 Here’s the last 24 hours in geopolitics. The US has warned Poland that Russia may be planning an armed provocation, potentially involving missile or drone strikes on infrastructure or a cross-border incursion, to test Nato's resolve and pressure Ukraine's allies into halting support. Sources said Moscow could use a staged withdrawal from any incursion as leverage in negotiations, while separate intelligence points to Russia using shadow ships to launch surveillance drones that have disrupted aviation across several Nato countries since 2024. Donald Trump said it is ridiculous for the US to maintain its one-sided relationship with NATO, writing that allies were not there for us, less than a week before the alliance's summit in Ankara. Meanwhile, Iran's military command threatened an immediate and forceful response against ships that use unapproved routes in the Strait of Hormuz, casting new doubt over trade flows in the waterway. German prosecutors charged a former Ukrainian army officer with taking part in a war crime over the Nord Stream blasts, accusing him of acting on behalf of Ukrainian state authorities. Pressure is mounting on Ireland to halt alumina sales to Russia as it holds the EU presidency, though Dublin says it will not decide on sanctions until an internal probe concludes. 📅 July 3, 2026

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Friday 03 July 2026 14:11:48 GMT