@nathancjun: The structure of our economy is hedged substantially against the strength of the stock market and investment into AI and unbelievable hedged against Nvidia right now. Because of this we are seeing GDP stable despite optimism and consumer confidence being down but as long as the stock market remains strong we will see resilience from the overall economy. That said, there’s enough data to substantiate that the bottom 50% is getting squeezed right now and not seeing any benefits and even though the OBBB provided tax returns that were higher than 2025 returns, most of that has been wiped out by tariff cost related increases. The middle class has basically stayed stagnant the past year with very little changed or shifts in wealth and spending power but what has changed substantially is the top 10% where we are creating more millionnnaires every week than ever before. We are in the most aggressive “trickle down economics will work” state of our country ever and the economy is currently based on a bet that AI will create returns from 2030 to 2040. We could see a 10-15% market adjustment but that doesn’t mean a recession. This will be like a tiny cut that just bleeds for the bottom 50%. Worth noting that almost every consumer category is more expensive than it was in 2024 and the industries that are seeing the actual impact of this are tourism and hospitality. If tourism was strong right now (and not weak) I wouldn’t be so confident in my assessment and what sucks is that tourism will show a boom in Q3 reporting due to the World Cup which is effectively a false positive.

Nathan Jun

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Region: US

Wednesday 08 July 2026 20:44:13 GMT