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David Hearst, editor in chief of Middle East Eye, says Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are acting as if war and ceasefire can coexist, pursuing deals with Iran while allowing Israel to continue its attacks in Lebanon. He argues this model, seen previously in Gaza and Lebanon, imposes restraint on one side while Israel continues military operations. Hearst says that the ceasefire terms are already under strain, with Iran insisting that an agreement cannot hold while Lebanon is being targeted. At the same time, Netanyahu faces mounting domestic pressure, accused of failing to achieve his objectives against Iran and confronting stronger than expected resistance from Hezbollah. He says the deal negotiated with Iran is a major setback for both Trump and Netanyahu, allowing Tehran to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue collecting transit fees, and secure commitments on sanctions relief and non-aggression. This, he adds, has “pulled the rug” from under Netanyahu, increasing the likelihood that Israel will continue the war in Lebanon to regain leverage. Hearst says that many of Netanyahu’s predictions about Iran have proven wrong, from the effectiveness of strikes on its missile programme to expectations of internal unrest. Instead, Iran has maintained cohesion and expanded its response, using control of key shipping routes and energy infrastructure to exert pressure on the global economy. He concludes that the conflict is entering a decisive phase. Trump faces political pressure at home and limited options, while Iran retains the capacity to escalate further. The outcome, Hearst adds, will depend on whether the US forces Israel to halt its campaign or risks a wider war that could destabilise the region and global markets.
David Hearst, editor in chief of Middle East Eye, says Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are acting as if war and ceasefire can coexist, pursuing deals with Iran while allowing Israel to continue its attacks in Lebanon. He argues this model, seen previously in Gaza and Lebanon, imposes restraint on one side while Israel continues military operations. Hearst says that the ceasefire terms are already under strain, with Iran insisting that an agreement cannot hold while Lebanon is being targeted. At the same time, Netanyahu faces mounting domestic pressure, accused of failing to achieve his objectives against Iran and confronting stronger than expected resistance from Hezbollah. He says the deal negotiated with Iran is a major setback for both Trump and Netanyahu, allowing Tehran to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue collecting transit fees, and secure commitments on sanctions relief and non-aggression. This, he adds, has “pulled the rug” from under Netanyahu, increasing the likelihood that Israel will continue the war in Lebanon to regain leverage. Hearst says that many of Netanyahu’s predictions about Iran have proven wrong, from the effectiveness of strikes on its missile programme to expectations of internal unrest. Instead, Iran has maintained cohesion and expanded its response, using control of key shipping routes and energy infrastructure to exert pressure on the global economy. He concludes that the conflict is entering a decisive phase. Trump faces political pressure at home and limited options, while Iran retains the capacity to escalate further. The outcome, Hearst adds, will depend on whether the US forces Israel to halt its campaign or risks a wider war that could destabilise the region and global markets.

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