@financein90s: One of the hottest trades of 2026 just fell ~40% in two weeks — right after one of the best earnings reports in market history. I’m up $143K (it’s moved up since recording) on Micron after the decline. I haven’t sold a share. Here’s why. Five things hit at once: ❌A hawkish Fed + inflation means higher rates ❌The strait closing again, reigniting the energy crisis ❌China’s CXMT filing to raise $8.6B for DRAM capacity ❌SK Hynix listing on the Nasdaq, splitting investor focus (liquidity) ❌Korean margin debt at a record 38 trillion won, with leverage so extreme - even single headlines are tripping circuit breakers (structural leverage risk) Why am I holding? 1. CXMT is locked out of EUV and years behind on HBM — and China can’t get enough memory for its own AI race. 2. War headlines flip every other day. And the Vera Rubin delay reports? Jensen denied them outright: “Giant Amounts of Production Incoming.” That matters because HBM4 needs ~30% more wafers than HBM3, Rubin runs on HBM4, and NVDA’s already indicated massive presales. 3. Meanwhile Micron actually reported revenue up 346%, with record free cash flow, earnings, and margins. 4. The one real concern is the Fed’s monetary policy & inflation. We can assume there’s pressure to be dovish - but the strait closure and war re-igniting does not help the situation. The catalyst that has the most impact starts next week with hyperscaler earnings. If capex keeps climbing, memory earnings are likely going to be perceived as durable (at least til the next quarter, when we repeat this again). Not financial advice, education purposes only. Memory is volatile and low-multiple for a reason. #investing #micron #research

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Friday 17 July 2026 17:55:51 GMT