@zscored: #ict #daytrading #tjr #gex

jrijemen :

Nice , but I beg to differ, orb doesn’t have alpha nor beta, its inside drift. Orb on its own is overrated and your not gonna get a payout using it standalone “rinse” props since the drawdowns are heavier then the prop firm allows.

le blanc :

there’s a good reason some propfirms don’t allow overnight holding

az.66 :

I’d disagree on the structural disadvantage, I’m not trading props personally but you’d have to keep in mind a prop firm challenge is taken inside a synthetic environment where you have no participation within the market order flow itself you’re non existent in a sense. At that point it’s not bad fills or slippage that become the problem it more or less becomes an edge problem rather than blaming the order flow structure. Next the lineair pay off you suggest is correct and it’s true, but you’re overstating the point of costs, when trading that same synthetic environment your costs are approaching zero, at that point it’s the leverage that matters not the costs or the pay off directly. You’re overstating the idea of a lineair pay off being the problem while it’s more a leverage problem. Further convexity doesn’t create edge by itself but it opens doors to asymmetric pay offs where the loss is structurally capped, in that sense let’s say your strategy performs bad in a certain state you’re protected against bigger losses that you would have on a live account the idea doesn’t create edge for the mean it mostly does create it for the outlier generating something statistically more valuable. About the data saying that people tend to lose money over time from prop firms or stop making as much money from them is real, but then it’s a problem of calibration and adaption of the model not the prop firm idea itself. Conclusion is that prop firms were never the problem, it was the traders trading them obviously there are some of the outliers which mostly is survivorship bias but some do generate positive ev over time which is undeniable, prop firms become interesting when your edge is proven across multiple states and market transitions, not for the one trading a backtested model across the last 3 years thinking it’s edge without stress testing the model enough and using a bigger sample of data.

zxxxer1 :

straight up cap btw

Simon T :

Well, a simple Open direction ORB (Explained in Zarattinis paper) is profitable after costs. Big trades have an edge. The overnight period maintains a long only edge. A simple VWAP cross overperforms. All of this combinations can produce a positive EV regarding propfirms, don’t you think?

n :

How can I get access to ur research paper?

ddenis :

fancy gambling

Ltps6517 :

Isn’t that sample variance equation the same equation for calculating stdv?

cooloffpeople :

So don’t trade?

vikram🕷️ :

Orb has been known about for years, there’s just not really any efficient way to capture it

suppressivecharm :

nice

expiry :

Mirin

ᴀɴᴛʙʀᴏᴋᴇ® :

edvards :

￶ :

slop

ynq :

-6.8% it’s to much for prop firms I’ve tried something like that with orb but now I have something more simple based on high volume ny sessions and cross ema ,65% wr, ≈4 Sharpe, -2% mdd and some Strat off sizing

︎ ︎ :

az.66 locked tf in

Valeretn :

🦧