@johngstevens: Bessent just said Hormuz deal could come today or tomorrow. Here’s what that means. 👇 🕊️ BESSENT’S STATEMENT — THIS MORNING: → Per Investrade/CNBC: Treasury Secretary Bessent: deal to reopen Hormuz could come “today or tomorrow” → Per Yahoo Finance August 4: “Rates firm as U.S. pivots to diplomacy with Iran” → Dow surged 710+ points on the news per Investrade → S&P 500 hit new intraday record high per Investrade → Nasdaq up 1.54% per Investrade → Crude oil: slid more than 3% following US-Iran agreement discussions per Investrade → WTI crude fell toward $76.97/barrel per The Mortgage Reports → 10-year Treasury yield declining today per Investrade — down from yesterday 📊 JOLTS — JUNE 2026 JOB OPENINGS — RELEASED TODAY: → Per Investrade/BLS: 7.359 million openings — below 7.400 million estimate → Down from 7.537 million in May per BLS → Job openings rate: fell to 4.4% from 4.5% in May per BLS → Hiring increased to 5.348 million in June per BLS → Layoffs and discharges little changed per BLS → Softening labor market = less pressure on Fed to hike in September 🏦 THE INDUSTRY IMPACT — PER HOUSINGWIRE: → Rising mortgage rates impacted summer homebuying season per HousingWire → At least one major lender cited elevated rates as key reason for recent layoffs → Real-world consequence of the rate environment on the industry → But: HousingWire also forecasts modest price changes and improved conditions for buyers 🎯 THE CHAIN THAT MATTERS: → Bessent: deal today or tomorrow → Hormuz reopens → oil falls → inflation eases → 10-year yield declining already → rates follow yields lower → JOLTS softening → less labor market pressure → less Fed hike urgency → Watch Hormuz ship traffic — that is the leading indicator
