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Saturday 08 August 2026 14:07:48 GMT
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Chan-hom is located 1776 km east-southeast of Misawa, Japan, and has tracked northwestward at 30 km/h (16 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 6.7 meters (22 feet). The steering ridge will begin weakening and retreat to the east in around 12 hours as a separate subtropical ridge builds in from the west. The steering environment will become weak as a result and induce a slower northwestward track speed in 1 to 2 days. After 2 days, the ridge to the northeast is expected to build back westward and regain control of the steering environment, resulting in a west-northwestward track as the system accelerates toward Honshu. The system will have an opportunity to consolidate and intensify while it remains in the weak steering environment and reach a peak of in 60 hours to 3 days. As Chan-hom approaches Honshu it will encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and a complex midlatitude synoptic environment that favors subtropic transition beginning in around 4 days and completing in 5 days. Model track guidance is in overall good agreement about the west-northwestward trajectory and modulations induced by the evolving steering environment. The cross-track spread of 232 km at 3 days is attributable to the complex steering environment and midlatitude environmental influence on the system structure. Cross-track spread increases to 593 km in 5 days for the same reasons. The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the multi-model consensus with medium confidence over the next 3 days and low confidence thereafter due to uncertainty about the subtropical transition scenario. Model intensity guidance is in good agreement about gradual intensification followed by a weakening trend after 3 days. The JTWC intensity forecast is placed near the consensus with medium confidence throughout the forecast period. Warning Number 4. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). #tropicalstormchanhom #tropicalstorm #japan #tohoku #japanmeteorologicalagency
Chan-hom is located 1776 km east-southeast of Misawa, Japan, and has tracked northwestward at 30 km/h (16 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 6.7 meters (22 feet). The steering ridge will begin weakening and retreat to the east in around 12 hours as a separate subtropical ridge builds in from the west. The steering environment will become weak as a result and induce a slower northwestward track speed in 1 to 2 days. After 2 days, the ridge to the northeast is expected to build back westward and regain control of the steering environment, resulting in a west-northwestward track as the system accelerates toward Honshu. The system will have an opportunity to consolidate and intensify while it remains in the weak steering environment and reach a peak of in 60 hours to 3 days. As Chan-hom approaches Honshu it will encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and a complex midlatitude synoptic environment that favors subtropic transition beginning in around 4 days and completing in 5 days. Model track guidance is in overall good agreement about the west-northwestward trajectory and modulations induced by the evolving steering environment. The cross-track spread of 232 km at 3 days is attributable to the complex steering environment and midlatitude environmental influence on the system structure. Cross-track spread increases to 593 km in 5 days for the same reasons. The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the multi-model consensus with medium confidence over the next 3 days and low confidence thereafter due to uncertainty about the subtropical transition scenario. Model intensity guidance is in good agreement about gradual intensification followed by a weakening trend after 3 days. The JTWC intensity forecast is placed near the consensus with medium confidence throughout the forecast period. Warning Number 4. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). #tropicalstormchanhom #tropicalstorm #japan #tohoku #japanmeteorologicalagency

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