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Tropical Weather Advisory for Wednesday October 7, 2026. Tropical Weather Advisory #12: For Tropical Storm Isaias: Probability of Hurricane Development: VERY HIGH->95% Probability of Major Hurricane (CAT.3+) Development: HIGH-70% Summary: ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR STRENGTHENING ISAIAS...GULF RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW… Discussion: Isaias has gotten better organized during the past several hours with a large area of deep convection near and northeast of the center. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the center is re-forming a bit to the north of the previous advisory nearer to the mid-level center, with an estimated pressure of 1000 mb derived from dropsonde data. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt in consideration of increase in satellite organization and the 4-mb dropsonde pressure fall, close to the UW-CIMSS SATCON values and many of the other objective estimates. With the center re-formation, the low- and mid-level centers appear to be coming into better alignment. This structural change could facilitate rapid intensification during the next day or two given light-to-moderate shear along the forecast track, near-record SSTs for this time of the year and a very moist environment. Near landfall, increasing shear could cause some weakening, but it isn’t certain how fast the winds will diminish The storm could become a major hurricane although there is still some uncertainty, probability remains at 70% for this advisory. Regardless, Isaias should be growing in size as it approaches the northern Gulf coast due to a trough interaction especially on the eastern side as shear tears at the hurricane. Gulf coast residents should prepare now and consider evacuation if told to do so.
Tropical Weather Advisory for Wednesday October 7, 2026. Tropical Weather Advisory #12: For Tropical Storm Isaias: Probability of Hurricane Development: VERY HIGH->95% Probability of Major Hurricane (CAT.3+) Development: HIGH-70% Summary: ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR STRENGTHENING ISAIAS...GULF RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW… Discussion: Isaias has gotten better organized during the past several hours with a large area of deep convection near and northeast of the center. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the center is re-forming a bit to the north of the previous advisory nearer to the mid-level center, with an estimated pressure of 1000 mb derived from dropsonde data. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt in consideration of increase in satellite organization and the 4-mb dropsonde pressure fall, close to the UW-CIMSS SATCON values and many of the other objective estimates. With the center re-formation, the low- and mid-level centers appear to be coming into better alignment. This structural change could facilitate rapid intensification during the next day or two given light-to-moderate shear along the forecast track, near-record SSTs for this time of the year and a very moist environment. Near landfall, increasing shear could cause some weakening, but it isn’t certain how fast the winds will diminish The storm could become a major hurricane although there is still some uncertainty, probability remains at 70% for this advisory. Regardless, Isaias should be growing in size as it approaches the northern Gulf coast due to a trough interaction especially on the eastern side as shear tears at the hurricane. Gulf coast residents should prepare now and consider evacuation if told to do so.

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