@rayofhk: Where will the next AI bottleneck appear? The most powerful AI ecosystems may not be the ones that dominate a single layer. They may be the ones capable of coordinating all six layers of the AI economy. And that leads to another investment question I find increasingly interesting: Where does the bottleneck move next? During an enormous industrial buildout like AI, constraints don’t necessarily remain in the same place. At one moment, the shortage may be GPUs. Then memory. Then networking. Then electricity. Cooling. Land. Or even regulation and permitting. And there is an economic mechanism behind this: A bottleneck creates scarcity. Scarcity can create pricing power. Pricing power attracts capital. Capital expands capacity. And as one constraint is relieved, the bottleneck may move somewhere else. This is why simply identifying today’s hottest AI sector may already be too late. The more interesting question for investors may be: What becomes scarce next? Or even more importantly: Which bottleneck is the market not pricing yet? That leads to a simple way I think about the cycle: Technology moves the bottleneck. Scarcity creates the opportunity. Capital follows the opportunity. But there is an important warning. A genuine bottleneck does not automatically make the company solving it a good investment. If everybody already recognizes the scarcity, expectations — and valuations — may already reflect enormous future growth. So you can correctly identify where the bottleneck is moving… and still lose money on the investment. You can be right about the bottleneck — and still be wrong about the valuation. That distinction is especially important in an AI market where extraordinary technological growth and extraordinary valuations can exist at the same time. The next goldmine may indeed lie near the next bottleneck. But the price you pay to enter the goldmine still matters. #AI #A#ArtificialIntelligenceinvesting #Semiconductors #Ray6LayerAIEcosystemModel
