@calmmoneycoach: THE 4 PERCENT RULE, HONESTLY Nobody agrees on your safe withdrawal rate, and that spread is the answer. One thing the video only gestures at: none of these numbers are net of anything. The Cederburg study deducts no fees and no tax. Neither does Bengen. So a 4 percent gross withdrawal in a RRIF is not 4 percent of spending money, it is 4 percent minus whatever your marginal rate takes. That alone can move you a full point down the range. The four numbers, so you have them straight. Bengen's 1994 paper said 4 percent. The precise 4.15 figure belongs to a later 50/50 US stock and Treasury version, worst start 1966. Bengen's 2025 book, A Richer Retirement, raises his own worst case to 4.7, and the entire increase comes from diversifying the portfolio, mostly adding small caps. Nothing about the world changed. Then the one that should scare you and doesn't get quoted. Anarkulova, Cederburg, O'Doherty and Sias, published in the Journal of Pension Economics and Finance in 2025, ran 38 developed countries and roughly 2,500 years of returns. A 65 year old couple following the 4 percent rule had a 17.4 percent chance of running out before they died. Hold that risk to one in twenty and the withdrawal rate is about 2.3 percent. Ben Felix at PWL adjusted for Canadian longevity and landed near 2.7. That 2.7 is his number, not the paper's, and it is worth saying out loud because it gets misattributed constantly. Morningstar's current figure is 3.9 percent for a 30-year retirement at 90 percent success. Also US data. Morningstar publishes no Canadian version. The fix isn't a better percentage. Morningstar tested the methods head to head: a fixed inflation-adjusted plan supports 3.9, and letting your spending move with the market supports 4.3 to 5.7 on the same portfolio. Flexibility beats precision. It just isn't free. You've traded the risk of running out for the near-certainty of having to cut back in some years. Four percent is a smoke alarm, not a thermostat. Educational only, not advice. US and global data where flagged. Your province, your income, your accounts.

Brian | Calm Money Coach

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Wednesday 19 August 2026 08:28:57 GMT