@thom.code: Part 2/2 ~ Why Coding Projects Always Take Longer Than Expected You've done this a hundred times. Renovate a kitchen, plan a wedding, promise a project by Friday — and nearly every time it takes longer than you thought. Not occasionally. Almost always. In 1979, two psychologists gave this a name, and what they found explains something that quietly costs the software industry billions of dollars a year, every single sprint, without fail. In this video: the original 1979 Kahneman and Tversky study that had nothing to do with code but explains every blown deadline since, the difference between the "inside view" and "outside view" and why more detail makes your estimates feel more convincing without making them more accurate, the "unpacking effect" and why programmers are great at estimating the parts they can picture and terrible at the parts they can't, and why the standard fix — just add a buffer — quietly fails almost every time. 💬 What's the most wildly wrong estimate you've ever given, and do you remember what actually went sideways? Tell me in the comments. Timestamps: 0:00​ – The pattern nobody escapes 0:24​ – The 1979 study that started it all 1:04​ – The inside view vs the outside view 1:58​ – Why this hits programming harder than other fields 2:36​ – The unpacking effect 3:28​ – Why "just add a buffer" doesn't work 3:54​ – What actually fixes it 4:28​ – The truth about the planning fallacy #Programming​ #Psychology​ #Kahneman​ #SoftwareEngineer​ #ProjectManagement​ ​

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Wednesday 19 August 2026 18:10:39 GMT