Mr. Mathemagician
Region: US
Thursday 20 August 2026 18:28:13 GMT
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Diego :
I've never understood why Monty Hall is presented as it is turning a 33% into a 66%... At the moment you're allowed to switch, staying with the same door is still a new decision between the two new options.. 50/50..
2026-09-27 15:29:53
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wilbur :
I don't understand in the boy/girl scenario, that it's not Bb, bB, BG, GB, with 25% chance for each. Why does the sequence of gender matter with the girl options, but the order of boys is irrelevant?
2026-09-29 16:16:03
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weanoff :
Monty hall is a lot easier to grasp when you use bigger numbers. Let’s say you chose one door out of 100. If the host opens 98 doors and they’re all goats, that means either the door you chose or the door the host left will have the car. If you stick with the door you chose, then that would be a 1% chance to have the car. But if you change your pick it becomes a 99% chance to get the car
2026-08-21 21:07:53
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J_Stez :
What's the chance that Scott Steiner will win a triple threat match against Samoa Joe and Kurt Angle at sacrifice?
2026-09-29 14:40:54
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dmcdanie86 :
the true monty hall fallacy is assuming a car is better than a goat. The last problem with the family is 2/3rds odds there's a girl.
2026-09-28 03:42:39
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Dr.Dan | Author 📖 :
The thing people forget about Monty Hall is that it isn't completely about probability. The host in the problem already knows whats behind all the doors and whats behind those doors won't change in the middle of the problem. The other door (the one you should switch to) was NOT opened by the host. There is a chance that the host *couldn't* open that door because it has the prize behind it. If you remove the hosts meta knowledge the whole thing breaks down because about 1/3rd of the time he opens the door with the prize and you lose regardless. In a certain point if view, you can rationalize the increased chances by asking yourself "Why didn't the host open the other door?"
2026-08-21 03:36:53
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🎟 :
Ways to have 2 children with at least 1 boy: BB, BG, GB. 2/3 of these have a girl. So the answer is 2/3.
2026-08-20 21:12:33
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Jimmy :
The gamblers fallacy works in the long run. It just takes very large numbers for the probability to even out
2026-08-21 07:43:17
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Tbrazil96 :
1. Isn’t a paradox, or even counterintuitive…
2026-09-21 21:20:32
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RED936 :
in the boy or girl paradox, the way you arrive at the knowledge, that a family has 2 children with atleast one boy, matters. scenario 1. I know John has 2 kids. I go to a party where i see John with one of his children who is a boy. Now i would know John has 2 children with at least one boy. However the likelyhood of Johns other child being a girl remains 50%. scenario 2. I know John has 2 children and i ask to know if atleast one of them is a boy and he says yes. I know again that John has 2 kids eith atleast one boy, but now the likelyhood for the other child being a girl is increased to 66% The difference lies in how the BB scenario is evaluated. In scenario 1 if John has 2 boys him picking a boy to go with him to the party is 100% likely while him picking a boy in both GB and BG scenarios is 50% likely. and in scenario 2 each BB GB BG set has the equal chance of 33% to be picked
2026-08-21 17:33:01
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bingbong :
the monty hall one will never make sense to me
2026-08-22 10:21:54
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nate297232 :
I think the boy girl one is worded poorly. There is nothing sequential about the question
2026-08-21 07:55:33
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tiktokito0d :
Never understood the logic behind Monty Hall
2026-08-20 20:33:20
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YashS :
1. The chances of someone sharing your birthday out of 23 people is no where near 5.9% 2. It's 50/50 which one it is, not 2/3 3. The coin flip is 50/50 unless you could say that heads is slightly more biased 4. Boy or girl is 50/50
2026-08-20 20:43:58
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daddyimcuhing :
Does switching the door make it 66 percent?
2026-08-21 01:05:08
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Matt6418 :
on 2 a very important point that was left out. if the host KNOWS it's a goat if they don't it's a 50 50 chance
2026-08-21 16:46:22
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R :
You should switch the door and it’s still 50/50 heads or tail.
2026-08-20 20:15:04
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Jordan 990 :
Monty’s door is dumb because it can be explained exactly the same in reverse. If I pick door A and the host reveals door C to be a goat then I now have 2/3 odds of having picked correctly because I got the odds from door A and C.
2026-08-22 03:37:22
0
erniefreundlinger :
If you switch at Monty Hall your chances increase definitely
2026-08-21 07:01:51
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djdkhbxwk :
What if I really like goats
2026-08-22 03:02:09
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Caleb Talbot :
If a specific boy is identified or observed, the answer changes to 50%. I hate and love but mostly hate statistics😂
2026-08-21 06:50:13
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dmcdanie86 :
the other thing about the monty hall problem, is that the host could choose to reveal a door only if you guessed right. If the host always reveals a door than yes, you should switch, but you never know when the host might change the rules!
2026-09-28 03:44:39
0
Bazza :
1. 23 2. Yes 3. Equal Chance 4. 1/3
2026-09-29 06:03:25
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🇺🇲 timmbj :
the people that don't understand these think that you have a 50% chance of dying in a plane crash
2026-08-28 10:41:28
2
Big_Meow :
I swear I come from a reality where you don't switch doors
2026-08-27 17:33:05
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