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Arthur Fils is into the last four in Cincinnati and the market gives him around a 74% chance to reach the final. Flavio Cobolli sits at about 26%. Here is why that gap is smaller on paper than it looks. Fils leads the head to head 2-0 and Cobolli has never taken a single set off him, not in Monte Carlo last year and not at the Next Gen Finals in 2023. Fils has beaten Hanfmann, Lehecka, De Minaur and Tirante to get here, three of those four in straight sets. Cobolli has also won four matches, against Kecmanovic, Blockx, Jodar and Paul, but every single one of them went three sets. He has not won a match in straight sets all tournament. The number that matters: Fils is currently number one on the ATP Under Pressure leaderboard with a rating of 265.9, ahead of Jannik Sinner on 259.5, and he has won 100% of his deciding sets over the last 52 weeks. Cobolli is 17th on that list at 71.4%. Which means once Fils takes the opening set, he does not lose. Of the six players left in the draw, the market makes Fils the most likely champion, just ahead of Taylor Fritz. Cobolli is well down that list. Beating Paul in the quarter-final was a serious result, and Cobolli also beat Jodar here, the same Jodar who knocked Fils out in Montreal two weeks ago. So the case for him is not empty. I just do not see enough to expect him to take a set off Fils, and I am not confident enough in Fils at that number either. So I am not calling this one before it starts. I will be following it live. ATP Cincinnati Open 2026, Masters 1000, semi-final. Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils preview, head to head and under pressure stats. #tennis #atptennis #tennistv #cincinnatiopen #djokovic #zverev
Arthur Fils is into the last four in Cincinnati and the market gives him around a 74% chance to reach the final. Flavio Cobolli sits at about 26%. Here is why that gap is smaller on paper than it looks. Fils leads the head to head 2-0 and Cobolli has never taken a single set off him, not in Monte Carlo last year and not at the Next Gen Finals in 2023. Fils has beaten Hanfmann, Lehecka, De Minaur and Tirante to get here, three of those four in straight sets. Cobolli has also won four matches, against Kecmanovic, Blockx, Jodar and Paul, but every single one of them went three sets. He has not won a match in straight sets all tournament. The number that matters: Fils is currently number one on the ATP Under Pressure leaderboard with a rating of 265.9, ahead of Jannik Sinner on 259.5, and he has won 100% of his deciding sets over the last 52 weeks. Cobolli is 17th on that list at 71.4%. Which means once Fils takes the opening set, he does not lose. Of the six players left in the draw, the market makes Fils the most likely champion, just ahead of Taylor Fritz. Cobolli is well down that list. Beating Paul in the quarter-final was a serious result, and Cobolli also beat Jodar here, the same Jodar who knocked Fils out in Montreal two weeks ago. So the case for him is not empty. I just do not see enough to expect him to take a set off Fils, and I am not confident enough in Fils at that number either. So I am not calling this one before it starts. I will be following it live. ATP Cincinnati Open 2026, Masters 1000, semi-final. Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils preview, head to head and under pressure stats. #tennis #atptennis #tennistv #cincinnatiopen #djokovic #zverev

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