@typhoonwx_1loveyuzuki: ⚠️⚠️ This is a dangerous system. Possible hazards include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding. Saudel (Japanese Typhoon Number 18) is located 309 km north-northeast of Saipan, and has tracked northwestward at 20 km/h (11 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 9.8 meters (32 feet). Saudel is forecast to begin a westward turn in the short-term as a westward extension of the subtropical ridge centered to the northeast merges with a subtropical ridge centered over Kyushu. This ridging complex is expected to remain the primary steering influence until in around 4 days, after which ridging to the northwest is expected to dominate. Regarding intensity, steady intensification will likely continue out over the next 24 hours as Saudel remains in an area of high ocean heat content, low wind shear, and favorable outflow aloft. Saudel is expected to peak at or near super typhoon intensity in 36 to 48 hours, followed by a weakening phase as it encounters increased wind shear, lower ocean heat content, and less favorable outflow aloft. Track model guidance remains in good agreement in the short-term and has consolidated a bit in the long-term, with a cross-track spread of 528 km at 5 days. Notably, all models now show a slight west-southwestward turn in 4 to 5 days. Some uncertainty remains regarding reorientation of the ridging complex between Japan and central China. GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean remain the northernmost tracks, depicting the subtropical ridge over Kyushu retreating and a subtropical ridge centered over central China building eastward to steer the system. On the south end of the guidance, ECMWF shows the subtropical ridge over Kyushu combining with the subtropical ridge over central China resulting in stronger and more continuous ridging to the north. The bulk of guidance continues to show a track over or near Okinawa. The official JTWC track forecast is placed with high confidence out over the next 3 days and medium confidence thereafter, and is closely aligned with the multi-model consensus and AI guidance. Model intensity guidance is in good agreement regarding a short-term increase and a peak in 36 to 48 hours, with peak intensities ranging from 175 km/h (95 knots) to 285 km/h (155 knots). The general weakening trend thereafter is also depicted across all models, but a spread of about 75 km/h (40 knots) remains throughout. The official JTWC intensity forecast is thus assessed with medium confidence throughout the forecast period. Warning Number 15. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). #Forecast #Meterology #Satilite #TeopicalCyclone #Saudel

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Saturday 22 August 2026 06:48:44 GMT