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Tuesday 25 August 2026 16:10:51 GMT
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Russia had all the ingredients to become the world's third AI superpower, but it blew its chance by invading Ukraine. That's what a programmer in China argued in a post on X earlier this week that has received 2 million views and 24,000 likes. His argument is that AI needs electricity, cooling, and hardware. Siberia is so cold that you can get free cooling by opening a window, electricity is cheap, and Russians win programming contests. I think this is a good argument, and the programming bit is true: from 2012 to 2021, a Russian team won first place in all the world finals of the ICPC, the world's biggest collegiate programming competition. But I'd add one thing: cheap electricity and natural cooling were never Russia's comparative advantage. The cheap Siberian electricity was already being used by bitcoin miners, many of them around the city of Irkutsk. In February 2025, the governor of Irkutsk wrote a letter to Putin saying that crypto mining was going to create a shortage of up to 2.9 gigawatts in the region's power capacity by 2030, and asking him to ban mining in the region until 2031. Another problem is that Russia never made its own state-of-the-art chips. Its processors were made in Taiwan, and its AI used Nvidia GPUs. Both sources dried up in 2022. The real asset in that hand, it turns out, was never the cold air: it was the people. The programmer's clearest illustration makes the point. About 1,300 engineers left Yandex, basically the Russian version of Google, to follow its founder and start an AI cloud company in Europe called Nebius. With Nvidia chips and Western investment dollars, Nebius secured a Microsoft deal worth as much as $19 billion. As of August of this year, the company was worth about $58 billion, more than the Russian company they left, Yandex. In Russia, Yandex is still training its AI systems using the three supercomputers it built in 2021. Two weeks ago, a drone set fire to the data center housing two of them. Cold air and cheap power don't move. Engineers do. And once a government cuts off the chips and the investors, the most valuable asset in the hand is the one that can get on a plane.
Russia had all the ingredients to become the world's third AI superpower, but it blew its chance by invading Ukraine. That's what a programmer in China argued in a post on X earlier this week that has received 2 million views and 24,000 likes. His argument is that AI needs electricity, cooling, and hardware. Siberia is so cold that you can get free cooling by opening a window, electricity is cheap, and Russians win programming contests. I think this is a good argument, and the programming bit is true: from 2012 to 2021, a Russian team won first place in all the world finals of the ICPC, the world's biggest collegiate programming competition. But I'd add one thing: cheap electricity and natural cooling were never Russia's comparative advantage. The cheap Siberian electricity was already being used by bitcoin miners, many of them around the city of Irkutsk. In February 2025, the governor of Irkutsk wrote a letter to Putin saying that crypto mining was going to create a shortage of up to 2.9 gigawatts in the region's power capacity by 2030, and asking him to ban mining in the region until 2031. Another problem is that Russia never made its own state-of-the-art chips. Its processors were made in Taiwan, and its AI used Nvidia GPUs. Both sources dried up in 2022. The real asset in that hand, it turns out, was never the cold air: it was the people. The programmer's clearest illustration makes the point. About 1,300 engineers left Yandex, basically the Russian version of Google, to follow its founder and start an AI cloud company in Europe called Nebius. With Nvidia chips and Western investment dollars, Nebius secured a Microsoft deal worth as much as $19 billion. As of August of this year, the company was worth about $58 billion, more than the Russian company they left, Yandex. In Russia, Yandex is still training its AI systems using the three supercomputers it built in 2021. Two weeks ago, a drone set fire to the data center housing two of them. Cold air and cheap power don't move. Engineers do. And once a government cuts off the chips and the investors, the most valuable asset in the hand is the one that can get on a plane.

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