@tswx3: Tropical Weather Advisory for Friday August 28, 2026. Tropical Weather Advisory #2: For Dolly: ...DOLLY CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... Discussion: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 44.8 West. Dolly is moving quickly toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, this system, or its remnants, should be nearing the Leeward Islands this weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely during the next couple of days, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). There has been little change with Dolly overnight. The storm is producing a small area of deep convection near and to the northeast of the center, but dry air is entraining into the southern half of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with last night’s ASCAT data and the latest satellite estimates. Satellite images also suggest that the low-level circulation could be losing some definition. The combination of increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry air, and Dolly’s fast forward speed should limit any notable intensification. In fact, all of the reliable models show the storm gradually losing strength and degenerating into a trough of low pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend. Post-tropical positions are provided from 36-60 h given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall, however, it seems unlikely that Dolly will have a closed circulation at those times.

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