@nicholas_crown: Jackson Hole was the opportunity for the Fed to take a hard stance on inflation - which Warsh did in the most vague way possible. We didn't get much in the way of guidance, but rather a series of general principals that we're verbally hedged. Nothing resolved, just crowded gold getting unwound from maxx long with no new fresh buyers. We finished the week green. Click the link in my profile to get our market analysis.
FOMC day is only 12 trading days from now. Thinking about the medium big picture. Right now it feels to me like bond markets are wary and erring on the pessimistic side. 58% chance of rate hike, while high, is still only about half. It is a game of chicken in the sense of bond markets signalling their unease of the new guy, Warsh. I foresee 2 sideways weeks for NAS futures, then, hike or not, focus will shift to earnings, with markets drifting likely higher toward year end. I also feel this is kind of a distraction from the long term fact that rates are frankly not that high historically speaking. Sure, the debt is a factor, tariffs…yadayadayada.
2026-08-29 15:57:18
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smehdi :
Letter
2026-08-29 15:05:02
1
Alex :
They're never gonna cut, they can keep playing this game all they want, its not an option these days
2026-08-28 23:47:33
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Black29 :
“Call Kevin’s bluff, dump another $25B in treasuries”
2026-08-29 02:46:56
15
kramgam :
It’s either Kalshi/polymarket manipulation or testing to see how the algos will react when he says hike
2026-08-29 13:46:53
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Caveman@theOpera :
He knows EXACTLY what he’s doing. What I can’t understand is why the market didn’t initially react. But an hour later, boom.
2026-08-29 08:26:07
3
shawnsmith.1990 :
Letter
2026-08-29 06:39:22
1
mariam.si_ :
Letter
2026-08-29 10:58:19
1
mirabellaarden :
Letter
2026-08-29 14:51:59
1
TopperHarley :
Letter
2026-08-29 14:55:49
1
chahine🍃 :
letter
2026-08-29 09:35:15
1
Markus Hunt :
Letter
2026-08-29 07:50:56
1
Orlaith :
Letter
2026-08-29 10:22:30
1
Alexandru Ogrezeanu :
Letter
2026-08-29 10:20:23
1
Nick Kay :
Letter
2026-08-29 07:48:52
1
Cliff :
letter
2026-08-29 05:31:41
1
shawnsmith.1990 :
letter
2026-08-29 06:38:18
1
frico_show :
letter
2026-08-29 06:30:47
1
Shirley&Co_London :
Letter
2026-08-29 08:59:03
1
iTKY :
letter
2026-08-29 05:18:01
1
Gaelicas :
LETTER
2026-08-29 06:39:12
1
tiktok987654321 :
Letter
2026-08-29 06:35:14
1
user620704556 :
is that ibkr behind you?
2026-08-29 11:00:17
1
eugenebong60 :
He’s going to get fired if he raises rates😂
2026-08-29 11:47:39
2
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