@financein90s: The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023. But the hike isn't the story. 👇 A quarter point with no guidance from Warsh? Expected, and priced in days ago. The real surprise is how fast the Fed's consensus flipped. In June, officials were split on more hikes. Now 16 of 18 see at least one more this year, 8 see another in 2027, and the first projected cut doesn't show up until 2028. Why that's bad for stocks in the short term: 📉 Bonds look more attractive next to stocks 📉 Higher discount rates shrink the value of future earnings and squeeze valuations 📉 Borrowing and business activity cool down Add midterms, an oil crisis, and a new Fed chair, and the near term looks dicey. So why am I optimistic? ✅ Pullbacks are sales, not endings. Also keeps the market from becoming overly speculative. ✅ Warsh says the economy has strengthened, and we’ve seen this in corporate earnings. ✅ Bond markets are pushing the Fed to tame inflation. Maintaining Fed Indepedence, at least optically, is good for the markets long term. ✅ We're early in one of the biggest technological shifts of our lifetime, and the tech keeps getting cheaper and smarter My mental model: if I liked a business at $200 and nothing about it changed, I like it even more at $100. So I'm spending less than I make, buying companies I believe in, and letting time do the work. 📌 Save this and compare it to December's dot plot. Follow for more. Not financial advice. #stockmarket #marketnews

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