@libre_001: $174 billion. That is the difference between the decision Masayoshi Son made in 2019 and the decision he wishes he had made. SoftBank sold its Nvidia stake for $4 billion. Today that position would be worth $178 billion. The painful part is that nothing about the sale was wrong by any standard metric available at the time. Markets were uncertain. The position had appreciated. Taking profit was the rational, disciplined, professionally defensible move. Every experienced investor in the room would have done the same thing. That is exactly what makes this story worth understanding. Conventional investing logic is built for a world where companies grow predictably, where valuations reflect fundamentals, and where the future roughly resembles the past. It has no framework for a company that quietly becomes the infrastructure layer of a technological revolution nobody fully saw coming. Nvidia became the backbone of the AI era, the company without which the entire industry would stall. That kind of position does not get priced correctly in 2019 because the demand that would justify the valuation did not exist yet. Son was not wrong. He was early in a way that looked like being right. The $174 billion gap is a lesson about what it costs to apply rational thinking to an irrational moment in technological history.

Libre.

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Friday 25 September 2026 10:22:32 GMT