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Sksailstar Nancy
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Friday 25 September 2026 15:15:18 GMT
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Everyone says every Bitcoin bear ends with an 80% crash. I measured every bear market on the wicks, 5 of them. This one broke the pattern. The question is which way. The rule. Each bear starts at the all-time high and ends at the lowest wick before that high is taken back. 2011 is on daily closes because the exchange data starts after it. The four finished bears. 2011 -93%, 2014 -87%, 2018 -84%, 2022 -78%. About 5 points shallower every cycle. The crashes really are shrinking. Draw a line through those four and it lands at -72% to -74% for this bear, 33,000 to 36,000 from the 126,272 top. That was the normal next crash. This one stopped at 57,735. That is -54%, 23 points shallower than 2022, almost five cycles of shrinking in one. The shallowest Bitcoin bear market on record, if the low holds. It was fast too. The low came 268 days after the top, when the last three took 363 to 410 days. The catch. On day 268 the 2014 bear was down 71%, 2018 was down 71% and 2022 was down 75%. All three went lower later, another 55%, 46% and 12%. In every bear since 2013, the first big low was not the last one. Where we are now. Today is day 354. The last three final lows came on day 363 to 410, and that window opens next week. A -60% drop would be 50,500. A -70% drop, 37,900. My read. Two readings fit the data. The market changed and -54% was the bottom, which is what Monday's break of 82,833 says. Or the old pattern is still running and the calendar is not done. 57,735 is the line between them. Comment SHALLOWBEAR and I will DM you the free Shallow Bear Study, every bear measured. Follow @bitcoin.daily for the data on Bitcoin nobody else is showing you. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoData
Everyone says every Bitcoin bear ends with an 80% crash. I measured every bear market on the wicks, 5 of them. This one broke the pattern. The question is which way. The rule. Each bear starts at the all-time high and ends at the lowest wick before that high is taken back. 2011 is on daily closes because the exchange data starts after it. The four finished bears. 2011 -93%, 2014 -87%, 2018 -84%, 2022 -78%. About 5 points shallower every cycle. The crashes really are shrinking. Draw a line through those four and it lands at -72% to -74% for this bear, 33,000 to 36,000 from the 126,272 top. That was the normal next crash. This one stopped at 57,735. That is -54%, 23 points shallower than 2022, almost five cycles of shrinking in one. The shallowest Bitcoin bear market on record, if the low holds. It was fast too. The low came 268 days after the top, when the last three took 363 to 410 days. The catch. On day 268 the 2014 bear was down 71%, 2018 was down 71% and 2022 was down 75%. All three went lower later, another 55%, 46% and 12%. In every bear since 2013, the first big low was not the last one. Where we are now. Today is day 354. The last three final lows came on day 363 to 410, and that window opens next week. A -60% drop would be 50,500. A -70% drop, 37,900. My read. Two readings fit the data. The market changed and -54% was the bottom, which is what Monday's break of 82,833 says. Or the old pattern is still running and the calendar is not done. 57,735 is the line between them. Comment SHALLOWBEAR and I will DM you the free Shallow Bear Study, every bear measured. Follow @bitcoin.daily for the data on Bitcoin nobody else is showing you. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoData

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