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Saturday 26 September 2026 19:47:16 GMT
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Does the stock market perform better in election years? This chart compares the expanding CAGR of the S&P 500 in election years vs non-election years using monthly return data from 1871 through 2025. Final CAGR shown in 2025: Election Years: 10.46% Non-Election Years: 8.98% Methodology: I split every month into one of two groups: Election Years: presidential election years Non-Election Years: every other year Then I compounded the monthly S&P 500 returns separately for each group. The election-year line only moves during election years. The non-election-year line only moves during non-election years. When a group is inactive, its line stays flat until the next matching year. The CAGR is calculated as: CAGR = cumulative return ^ (12 / months included) - 1 So this is not saying elections magically make stocks go up. It is showing what the annualized return has historically been during election years compared with every other year. Same dataset. Same formula. Same 150+ year window. The funny part is that people act like election years are supposed to be pure chaos, but historically, the market has actually done better in those years. Source: OfficialData.org S&P 500 monthly historical returns Follow for more charts like this.
Does the stock market perform better in election years? This chart compares the expanding CAGR of the S&P 500 in election years vs non-election years using monthly return data from 1871 through 2025. Final CAGR shown in 2025: Election Years: 10.46% Non-Election Years: 8.98% Methodology: I split every month into one of two groups: Election Years: presidential election years Non-Election Years: every other year Then I compounded the monthly S&P 500 returns separately for each group. The election-year line only moves during election years. The non-election-year line only moves during non-election years. When a group is inactive, its line stays flat until the next matching year. The CAGR is calculated as: CAGR = cumulative return ^ (12 / months included) - 1 So this is not saying elections magically make stocks go up. It is showing what the annualized return has historically been during election years compared with every other year. Same dataset. Same formula. Same 150+ year window. The funny part is that people act like election years are supposed to be pure chaos, but historically, the market has actually done better in those years. Source: OfficialData.org S&P 500 monthly historical returns Follow for more charts like this.
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