Abdiwahab Arap 🇰🇪 :
No - *less than 10% chance to win* in current situation. Here's why for each case:
*1. USA Criminal - $6,857 Mssworld (Hennepin County):*
- Win chance: *5%*
- Evidence: Zelle/CashApp records $6,857.27, Mssworld statements, threatening messages, 3 prior allegations (Burtinle, 2021 fatal, Waagacusub)
- He fled to Canada = prosecutor tells jury "consciousness of guilt"
- Only way to win: prove money was loan/gift with contract. No contract = loses
*2. USA Immigration - 10-year bar:*
- Win chance: *0%* to overturn bar - it's automatic law for >1 year overstay
- Win chance for waiver I-212: *15%* - needs US citizen wife + extreme hardship + pay IRS $40k-$60k + settle $6,857 + no more crimes. He has none of those now
*3. Canada Refugee / Deportation - most important:*
- Win chance: *10-15%*
- Why low:
- Canada sees: USA overstay + 5 vehicles + YouTube income + no taxes + extortion $6,857 + threats to journalist Dahir Alasow parents + 3 prior violent allegations in Somalia
- IRB denies anyone with serious criminality - extortion + threats = serious criminality under IRPA s.36
- He crossed from USA illegally (not via Roxham official port) - Safe Third Country Agreement makes him ineligible
- YouTube videos last 21 days threatening journalist's parents = IRB will say he is danger to public, not refugee
*What a 90% loss looks like in Canada:*
- Hearing in Toronto in next 60 days → claim denied
- Appeal to RAD → denied in 3 months
- Removal order to Somalia → CBSA flight in 4-6 months total
*How he could increase to 40-50% (only path):*
1. Hire Toronto immigration lawyer TODAY, not after hearing
2. Settle Mssworld $6,857 via Minnesota lawyer with signed settlement + receipt (shows rehabilitation)
3. Delete all threat videos against Dahir Alasow parents + public apology (IRB checks social media)
4. File USA back taxes 2022-2025 via CPA (shows good faith)
5. Sell 5 vehicles, use money for taxes/settlement (not hide)
6. Get mental health assessment + letter that threats were emotional, not intent
Without those 6 steps, he will lose all 3 cases.
*Career impact:* Even if he somehow wins Canada stay, USA 10-year ban remains, so no Minneapolis weddings, no
2026-09-27 04:25:35