@cowtowncoyote: Danielle Smith alberta seperation Alberta at a Crossroads: A Liberal Prime Minister Is More Popular Than Alberta’s Own Premier Beneath the referendum sits a political landscape that is not what a province on the edge of leaving should look like. We asked Albertans about direction, about their leaders, and, for the second time since March, how they think each leader would vote on separation. Earlier this year, Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. Curtis Brown, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, now leads our work across the West, and the combined firm gives clients in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba the depth of a national research house with people who know the ground. Alberta at a Crossroads is the first major study of that expansion. We built it with Robson Fletcher, a Calgary-based data & storytelling strategist working in partnership with Abacus Data in Alberta. The result is a five-part series, the most in-depth exploration of public opinion around the referendum, identity, expectations and the future of Alberta in the Canadian federation that anyone has published. We surveyed 1,000 Albertans from September 4 to 7, asked the separation question exactly as it will appear on the ballot, followed up with those who chose Option 2, the option to commence a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence (we call them Option 2 supporters (those who would vote for a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence) throughout), to find out whether they would actually vote to leave, and went deep on how Albertans see themselves, their province, their country and their neighbour to the south. This is a window into the minds of Albertans at a crossroads in the province’s history. What we learned 54% say Alberta is on the wrong track. 48% say Canada is. The country the separatists want to leave is judged to be in better shape than the province they want to run. Provincial vote intention: Among Albertans who express a provincial vote preference, 52% would support Danielle Smith and the UCP and 39% Naheed Nenshi and the NDP, with 6% choosing the Progressive Tory Party and 3% another party. A Liberal Prime Minister is more popular in Alberta than its conservative Premier. Mark Carney is viewed positively by 41%, Pierre Poilievre by 38%, Danielle Smith by 32%. The Premier is net negative in every region and every age group. Fewer Albertans think the Premier is a separatist than did in March, but they have not decided she is a federalist. 48% think she would vote to separate, down from 53%. The movement has gone into uncertainty, now 26%. Her own coalition trusts Poilievre more. 73% of Option 2 supporters view Poilievre positively; 69% view Smith positively. Donald Trump looms over everything. 72% of Albertans view him negatively. The only group in the province that views him favourably is the Option 2 coalition. The full report includes provincial vote intention, net impressions of seven political figures by region, age, party and identity, and the complete March-to-September tracking on where Albertans think their leaders stand. #fyp #foryou

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Sunday 27 September 2026 15:19:34 GMT