@tradingempire.en: Could Bitcoin drop to a new low in October, or is the four year cycle fading out? Halving, institutions and the data By the old pattern, a cycle bottom would be due this fall. We looked at what still supports that pattern and what speaks against it. The halving matters less each time. The 2020 halving cut daily new supply by 900 Bitcoin, the 2024 halving by 450, and the next one in 2028 will remove only about 225 per day. At a price of around 85,000 dollars on September 27, today's 450 new coins per day were worth roughly 38 million dollars. On September 21 alone, spot ETFs took in about 999 million dollars. Large holders also own far more than before. According to BitcoinTreasuries, ETFs, companies and governments held about 3.88 million Bitcoin in May 2026, around 18.5 percent of circulating supply. Strategy alone held 846,000 Bitcoin in September, per CoinGecko. Still, the old rhythm has not disappeared. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of 126,080 dollars on October 6, 2025, almost exactly inside the historical window. Analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that the peak landed within a week of the usual timing and expects the cycle low in October 2026. In early February the price briefly fell close to 60,000 dollars, about 52 percent below the record, and on September 27 it was still roughly 33 percent below it. Institutions also cut both ways. The sell-off in early 2026 was amplified in part by ETF outflows, since redemptions force real selling in the spot market. More big players do not automatically mean calmer prices. Will the four year cycle hold one more time, or has the market changed for good? Share your view in the comments. This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any decision. #crypto #bitcoin #btc #bitcoincrash

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Sunday 27 September 2026 18:56:09 GMT